Happy New Year and welcome back to another differential deep dive.
Before looking ahead, it’s worth a quick nod to last Gameweek’s picks — Anthony Gordon delivered an assist against Burnley, while Yankuba Minteh also returned versus West Ham before unfortunately picking up an injury just before the 60-minute mark. Not perfect, but the process was sound and the returns were there.
Our strategy balances attacking potential with defensive coverage:
⚽ 3 attacking player – midfielders or forwards
🛡️ 2 defensive players – defenders or goalkeepers
This ensures coverage across the pitch while prioritising FPL points, essential for Gameweek success.
Both Aston Villa and Watkins endured a sluggish opening to the campaign, with Watkins going from highly owned to completely ignored in the early Gameweeks.
However, momentum is clearly building. The 29-year-old England international has now produced three goals and two assists in his last four matches, coinciding with Villa being discussed as potential title challengers.
✅ 3 goals & 2 assists in his last 4 matches
— Fantasy Football Fix (@FantasyFootyFix) January 1, 2026
✅ League-leading xG (3.04) among all forwards over that period
✅ NFO (H) • CRY (A) • EVE (H) coming up
✅ Just 7.8% owned
Is Ollie Watkins on your radar as a potential FPL differential? 🤔 pic.twitter.com/yEBBSSeQe5
Across 19 appearances, Watkins has scored six goals from 7.85 expected goals (xG), highlighting just how frustrating the campaign has been for him — he could arguably have more goals to his name.
His threat is built on volume and chance quality rather than penalties, with 38 shots (fourth most among forwards in the Opta Stats Sandbox), 36 of those inside the box (joint third most), and 15 classified as 'big chances'. That level of box presence explains why his recent returns feel sustainable rather than streaky.
With Villa set to face NFO (H), CRY (A) and EVE (H), the combination of a favourable fixture run and underlying underperformance hints that Watkins could be about to embark on a purple patch. At sub-8% ownership, he shapes up as a classic differential who could help you climb the ranks.
While Bukayo Saka and Declan Rice dominate both ownership and headlines, Trossard has quietly slipped under the radar. The 30-year-old Belgian international is actually Arsenal’s top scorer this season with five goals, as shown in the Opta Stats Sandbox, while his four assists are bettered only by Saka (six) and Rice (seven).
Despite featuring in just 15 matches due to injury setbacks this season, Trossard’s attacking involvement is clear. He has taken 27 shots, with 23 coming inside the box, while his nine 'big chances' are bettered only by Gyökeres (11) among Arsenal players. His 4.7 xG also ranks third at the club.
He is averaging 6.0 FPL points per away game this season, the third-highest among Arsenal players as shown in the Opta Heatmaps tool. Against Bournemouth away, Arsenal should control territory, and if the game opens up, Trossard’s intelligence in finding space could make him one of the most effective low-owned routes into the league’s most potent attack.
Even during a disappointing campaign for West Ham, Bowen continues to deliver steady FPL returns. The 28-year-old England international has produced three goals, generated 2.4 expected goals (xG) and registered six shots on target, as shown in the Match Centre feature.
Bowen’s underlying data reflects that reliability. He leads West Ham for attacking involvement, registering 47 shots, 20 of which have been on target, and 36 shots inside the box — numbers that rival far more popular forward options.
With WOL (A), NFO (H) and TOT (A) on the horizon, this run represents a genuine opportunity for West Ham to turn a corner, and Bowen will be the focal point if they do.
With Crystal Palace struggling for attacking rhythm of late, Thiaw’s immediate fixture looks particularly appealing, and it’s supported by an extended run of CRY (H), LEE (H) and WOL (A).
The 23-year-old German international offers more than just clean-sheet potential. He has already scored two goals this season and has registered four big chances, joint-third among defenders — a sign that his aerial threat from set pieces is producing high-quality opportunities rather than speculative headers.
Over the next three Gameweeks, the Predicted Points & Stats tool has Thiaw as the second-highest defender for predicted points (13.7), behind only Gabriel (14.1). With both defensive and attacking routes to points, he stands out as a well-rounded differential option.
If you’re looking for predictability rather than explosiveness, Tarkowski delivers it better than almost any defender. The 32-year-old England international has racked up a huge 207 defensive contributions, the second-most among defenders, averaging 10.89 DEFCON per appearance.
Everton’s defence has been one of the league’s most resilient, with eight clean sheets, joint-second overall and only one fewer than Arsenal, as shown in the Opta Stats Sandbox.
Back-to-back home fixtures against Brentford and Wolves put Everton top for projected clean sheets (0.9) over the next two Gameweeks, as shown in the Predicted Points & Stats tool.
That gives Tarkowski a clear path to additional clean sheets — and with his DEFCON dominance, even narrow wins can translate into sizeable FPL hauls.
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