As the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) deadline looms closer, it is time to decide what to do with our precious free transfer(s). Aside from playing chips or selecting a captain, our transfers are the single most important aspect of our FPL campaign.

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In this article we crunch the numbers, analyse the fixtures, take advice from the Algorithm, and decide which player to buy, which player to sell, and which player to keep for Gameweek 2.

BUY: Ben Chilwell

• Cost: £5.6m
  
• Selected by: 19.9%
  
• Projected Points (next 6 GWs): 21.9
  

For many a season, Chelsea full-backs have been in vogue, yet they have repeatedly frustrated owners with a combination of injury and rotation. Now, with Pochetinno at the helm, it finally feels like we have a clear vision for the Chelsea set up, with both Ben Chilwell (£5.6m) and Reece James (£5.5m) seemingly preferred. That is not to say that either full back is nailed to start (the latter will always be an injury risk) and there is also the possibility of Chelsea playing with a back four, which may diminish their attacking threat.

That being said, Chilwell feels just too good to pass up. At £5.6m he possesses attacking potential, quite often being the most advanced player for Chelsea – as shown by the average player position mode in the Opta Player Heatmaps tool. In addition, he offers an abundance of clean sheet potential, as Chelsea embarks on a solid run of fixtures.

SELL: Kevin De Bruyne

• Cost: £10.4m
  
• Selected by: 5.9%
  
• Projected Points (next 6 GWs): 0.0
  

It’s been a brutal start to the season for those who decided to take a chance on Kevin De Bruyne (£10.4m). While our Premium Analysis article highlighted that De Bruyne didn’t represent good FPL value, no one could have predicted that his return from injury would be so hampered, with the Belgian playmaker predicted to be out with his hamstring issue until December.

The most transferred out player this Gameweek, De Bruyne has been shipped out by over 850,000 managers, has already dropped in price by £0.1m, and is currently at risk of dropping again. If you are amongst the almost 6% of managers who still own him, you need to get shut of him soon before you lose even more value.

KEEP: Gabriel Magalhães

• Cost: £5.0m
  
• Selected by: 29.6%
  
• Projected Points (next 6 GWs): 19.1
  

With 73 consecutive starts prior to last weekend’s action, owners of Gabriel (£5.0m) are well within their rights to feel slightly aggrieved at the fact that the Brazilian defender was benched. To add insult to injury, the benching seems to be purely tactical, as Arteta experimented with a different system, one in which Thomas Partey (£5.0m) was operating as an inverted full back.

According to Transfer Analytics, a quarter of a million managers have already moved him along, but in this article we are promoting patience over action. There are two reasons for this.

1. The new system made Arsenal look weaker, not stronger. They looked exposed down their right flank, particularly with 1 vs 1 situations, a common side effect of using inverted full backs. Secondly, Arsenal clearly missed Gabriel as a focal point for set pieces. His missing aerial threat made Arsenal look toothless from free kicks.
2. The news that Arsenal’s new signing Jurriën Timber (£4.9m) could be sidelined for a large portion of the season with an ACL issue, gives Arteta the cause (and an excuse) to revert back to the old system, which worked so well for Arsenal last season.

It is probably wisest to stick with Gabriel for one more week. If he doesn’t start at the weekend, then managers can think about moving him on.

By Matt Whelan

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