The differential picks for Gameweek 16 proved to be another strong week overall.
Harry Wilson was recommended for the second Gameweek in a row and repaid owners’ faith in style, delivering a 16-point haul thanks to a goal, two assists and maximum bonus.
Matheus Cunha also delivered, scoring and picking up a bonus point in Wolves’ 4–4 draw with Bournemouth.
At the back, Piero Hincapié and Nathan Collins were unable to keep clean sheets, but both still contributed DEFCON points, ensuring they didn’t leave managers empty-handed.
We’re now fully into the festive period. With fixture congestion, increased rotation risk and growing rank volatility, this is the ideal time to target low-owned FPL differentials who can provide a genuine edge in Gameweek 17 and beyond.
Our strategy balances attacking potential with defensive coverage:
⚽ 3 attacking player – midfielders or forwards
🛡️ 2 defensive players – defenders or goalkeepers
This ensures coverage across the pitch while prioritising FPL points, essential for Gameweek success.
The 21-year-old French international has quietly become one of Manchester City’s most effective creative outlets when given minutes. While Phil Foden has rightly been grabbing headlines for his explosive form, Cherki’s influence has largely gone unnoticed by many FPL managers.
Across 11 appearances this season, he has scored just once from an expected goals figure of 1.01, which is slightly underwhelming from a goal threat perspective. Where Cherki truly stands out, however, is creatively. He has already produced seven FPL assists — the most of any City player, as shown in the Opta Stats Sandbox, while also creating seven big chances.
With Jérémy Doku currently sidelined through injury, Cherki looks to be City’s primary creative spark at the moment. Crucially, he is also in form, having recorded three assists and three bonus points across the last two Gameweeks.
With fixtures against West Ham, Nottingham Forest and Sunderland on the horizon, a triple Manchester City attack of Haaland, Foden and Cherki could be a powerful differential strategy over the festive period.
The 24-year-old Netherlands international is unlikely to headline many FPL conversations, but his appeal lies in reliability rather than explosive returns.
With Dewsbury-Hall at Everton potentially set for a spell on the sidelines, Wieffer could become a smart, budget-friendly replacement for managers looking to free up funds.
Across 14 appearances this season, he has yet to find the net but has still contributed four assists, while also creating four 'big chances'. His goal threat is limited — he has taken 10 shots in total, with seven coming from inside the penalty area — but that is not where his primary value comes from.
Wieffer has hit the DEFCON threshold in three of his last five matches and currently ranks fourth among all midfielders for total defensive contributions (169). While his ceiling may be modest, his ability to deliver steady, dependable points makes him well suited to the congested festive schedule.
The 23-year-old German forward looks well placed to capitalise on Brentford’s upcoming fixtures.
Wolves, Bournemouth and Spurs have all been conceding goals regularly, placing the Bees second in the Fixture Planner for attacking difficulty over this period. While Thiago has become increasingly template, doubling up on Brentford’s attack could prove decisive.
📊 Top 7 players — all owned by 50%+ of Top 100k
— Fantasy Football Fix (@FantasyFootyFix) December 14, 2025
1️⃣ Haaland — 99%
2️⃣ Thiago — 82%
3️⃣ Foden — 73%
4️⃣ Dúbravka — 62%
5️⃣ Saka — 55%
6️⃣ Fernandes — 54%
7️⃣ Raya — 54%
📈 14.3% of Top 100k own all 7
🔁 5 AFCON free transfers = template increase
How many of the 7 do you own? 🤔
Schade has scored three goals this season, making him Brentford’s joint second-highest scorer, from an expected goals figure of 3.48. He has taken 20 shots in total, with eight on target, and notably all 20 efforts have come from inside the penalty area — underlining his direct goal threat. He has also contributed creatively, supplying two FPL assists and creating five 'big chances'.
For managers already backing Thiago, Schade offers a high-upside, ultra-low-owned attacking partner for this favourable run.
The 23-year-old Ecuadorian international continues to offer value even when clean sheets fail to materialise.
Many new owners were disappointed that Arsenal conceded against Wolves, but Hincapié still returned DEFCON points for the third consecutive Gameweek, underlining his strong baseline.
Arsenal now travel to face an Everton side that could be without Grealish and Dewsbury-Hall through injury, while Ndiaye is away at AFCON. Given Everton’s struggles in front of goal this season, it is difficult to see where their attacking output will come from without those key players.
The Predicted Points & Stats tool projects Arsenal to keep over two clean sheets across the next five Gameweeks, the highest total of any Premier League side.
This looks like it might be a short-term punt, with Gabriel’s return not far away, but Hincapié works well as a placeholder option before many managers inevitably switch back to the Brazilian.
Ownership: 9.6%
Next fixture: West Ham (H)
Predicted points: 4.9
The 20-year-old England youth international is edging towards becoming a reliable Fantasy Premier League option. With Manchester City entering a favourable run of fixtures and Aït-Nouri heading to AFCON, O’Reilly’s minutes look increasingly secure in the short term.
Across 15 appearances this season, he has scored once from an expected goals figure of 2.12, suggesting he has been a little unfortunate not to return more. He has taken 15 shots in total, with 11 coming from inside the box, and has also contributed creatively with three FPL assists. Defensively, Manchester City have kept seven clean sheets in matches he has featured in.
His differential status may not last long. Sitting at 9.6% ownership, he only just qualifies for this list and has already been transferred in by nearly 84,000 managers this Gameweek. Data from the Transfer Analytics tool also shows that O’Reilly features in 40% of the top 10 defender transfer combinations.
At £5.3m, O’Reilly offers a rare blend of clean sheet potential, attacking threat and value, making him an increasingly appealing pick for Gameweek 17.
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