Top 5 FPL Differentials for Gameweek 11

Differentials are always a gamble — but once again, several low-owned picks delivered in Gameweek 10.

Welbeck continued his strong start to the season with another goal, while both Lacroix and van Hecke rewarded their backers with clean sheets. Lacroix even hit DEFCON, and van Hecke was just one short but still managed to pick up a bonus point.

With so many managers clinging to the same template picks, Gameweek 11 presents the perfect opportunity to break away from the crowd.

We’ve highlighted five standout differentials — each under 10% ownership — who offer the right mix of strong underlying numbers, form, and favourable fixtures to help you surge up the Fantasy Premier League rankings this week.

How We Picked These FPL Differentials

Our strategy balances attacking potential with defensive coverage:

⚽ 3 attacking player – midfielders or forwards

🛡️ 2 defensive players – defenders or goalkeepers

This ensures coverage across the pitch while prioritising FPL points, essential for Gameweek success.

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Thiago: The Standout Budget Gyökeres Replacement

• Position: Forward
  
• Cost: £6.2m
  
• Ownership: 8.3%
  
• Predicted Points (GW11): 4.1
  
• Fixture: Newcastle (H)
  

With Viktor Gyökeres expected to miss out until after the international break, Thiago has emerged as the standout budget replacement up front. Arteta confirmed the extent of the issue last week, saying:

“He's definitely not available. He hasn't trained today, and we need to do some more tests and scans to understand the extent of the injury. So, we are digging in a little bit more to understand where we are in terms of the injury, and we will announce it when we know more.” — Mikel Arteta, 3 November

The Brentford striker has already scored six goals, with only Haaland (13) finding the net more this season — and a glance at the Match Centre tool shows he’s in red-hot form.

Over Brentford’s last five matches, he’s produced four goals from 4.5 xG and nine shots on target, underlining that his returns are backed by strong underlying data.

His next game comes against Newcastle, who started the campaign solidly at the back but conceded three goals from 2.82 xG against a struggling West Ham side last Gameweek.

With a Champions League tie against Athletic Club midweek, the Magpies could again suffer from fatigue and rotation — giving Thiago an excellent opportunity to extend his scoring streak.

Rogers: Villa’s Resurgence in Motion

• Position: Midfielder
  
• Cost: £6.8m
  
• Ownership: 4.8%
  
• Predicted Points (GW11): 3.9
  
• Fixture: Bournemouth (H)
  

Aston Villa’s early-season struggles appear to be behind them, with Rogers playing a central role in their attacking revival. The midfielder has produced one goal and two assists over the last five Gameweeks, showing flashes of the form that made him such a popular FPL option last season.

Villa also rank second-best for attacking fixture difficulty across the next four Gameweeks, facing a promising run of: Bournemouth (H), Leeds (A), Wolves (H) and Brighton (A).

While Bournemouth have impressed overall, their defensive record away from home remains shaky — they’ve conceded 12 goals on the road, a total only worse than Burnley (15). That could give Rogers an excellent chance to build on his recent strong performances and deliver more FPL returns.

Trossard: Arsenal’s Creative Spark

• Position: Midfielder
  
• Cost: £6.9m
  
• Ownership: 0.6%
  
• Predicted Points (GW11): 4.1
  
• Fixture: Sunderland (A)
  

With many managers freeing up an Arsenal slot after selling Gyökeres, Trossard could be an intriguing alternative.

Arsenal haven’t been the attacking force we once expected — instead, they’ve become the most defensively reliable sides in the league, keeping seven clean sheets (two more than any other team) and conceding just three goals (five fewer than anyone else). Given that, a defensive double-up may be the more sensible route for FPL managers.

However, if you’re set on adding attacking coverage from Arsenal, Trossard is quietly going under the radar. While most managers will naturally turn to Saka, a comparison using the Opta Heatmaps tool shows Trossard’s per-90 statistics are more than competitive — and he’s £3.2m cheaper.

Saka leads for goals and xG, but once penalties are removed his non-penalty xG drops to 0.27 per 90, compared to Trossard’s superior underlying numbers.

For managers looking to go against the grain, Trossard could be a smart differential — but Arsenal’s defensive security certainly still deserves strong consideration.

Neco Williams: Forest’s Reliable Outlet Under Dyche

• Position: Defender
  
• Cost: £4.7m
  
• Ownership: 3.5%
  
• Predicted Points (GW11): 4.8
  
• Fixture: Leeds (H)
  

After a turbulent start to the season and two managerial changes, Nottingham Forest look far more organised under Sean Dyche. They impressed with a Europa League win over Porto and by salvaging a draw against Man United in Gameweek 10.

If Dyche can restore Forest’s defensive solidity, Neco Williams could become an excellent FPL option given his attacking threat.

He’s already scored once this season and has registered 11 shots, a tally bettered only by Muñoz (12) and Calafiori (18) among defenders, according to the Opta Stats Sandbox. He’s also had 21 touches in the opposition box — the eighth-most of any defender.

Next up is a promising fixture against Leeds, with the Predicted Points & Stats tool giving Forest a 50% chance of a clean sheet. It’s easy to see why — Leeds have scored just three goals in five away games, taking only 43 shots, with Everton (39) the only side to have managed fewer.

Richards: Palace’s Budget DEFCON Machine

• Position: Defender
  
• Cost: £4.5m
  
• Ownership: 3.2%
  
• Predicted Points (GW11): 4.3
  
• Fixture: Brighton (H)
  

Crystal Palace are entering a favourable run of fixtures, and Chris Richards looks like a rock-solid budget option. He’s already recorded four clean sheets and boasts a DEFCON score of 106 — the fifth-highest among defenders and the best of any priced at £4.5m or below.

Richards has also accumulated 168 BPS, the most of any player yet to earn a bonus point, suggesting he’s been unlucky not to have more than his current 44 FPL points. His numbers underline just how influential he’s been in Palace’s defensive setup.

At £4.5m, he offers a cheap and reliable route into a solid backline — with Palace keeping two clean sheets in five home matches, the third-best record in the league. A strong pick for those seeking stability and value.

FPL Gameweek 11 Differentials Summary

Thiago – A clinical finisher with strong underlying numbers, ranking among the top forwards for xG.

Rogers – The creative spark behind Villa’s attacking turnaround, with 1 goal and 2 assists in his last 5 Gameweeks and great fixtures ahead.

Trossard – An under-the-radar Arsenal option who matches Saka’s non-penalty threat at a much cheaper price.

Neco Williams – Offers a blend of attacking intent and improving defensive potential under Dyche, with Forest’s fixtures turning nicely.

Chris Richards – A consistent £4.5m budget gem with 4 clean sheets, elite DEFCON numbers, and unlucky not to have bonus points.

Whether you’re chasing rank or protecting your mini-league lead, these Gameweek 11 differentials could make all the difference.

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