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FPL Gameweek 38: Final Day Differentials

Fantasy Football Fix 14 May 2024

With Fantasy Premier League (FPL) managers looking to make up ground on the final day, the best midfield differentials under 10% ownership are analysed using the Fix Comparison Matrix.

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Michael Olise (AVL)

Olise has been on fire since his return to the Palace squad, the 22-year-old has racked up 47 FPL points despite playing the fewest minutes (432) in the comparison. He is top for goals (four) and shots (20) while he is second for attempted assists (13), assists (two) and shots on target (SoT) (nine).

Kai Havertz (EVE)

Havertz has flourished in the centre-forward role for Arsenal and looks to have cemented that spot over Jesus, the German international tops the comparison for minutes played (611), FPL points (56), goals (four), assists (four), SoT (12), attempted assists (15), 'big chances' (BC) (six) and BC created (six). The title race is going to go down to the final day and Arsenal have plenty to play for.

Brennan Johnson (shu)

With the injuries to Richarlison and Werner, B. Johnson's minutes are more secure than they have ever been this season. Despite being bottom for shots (11), he is top for BC (six) which indicates the chances he is getting are of high quality. He has also created three BC and is second in the comparison for BC involvements (nine). As the below image from our Opta Stats Sandbox shows, Spurs' opponents Sheff. Utd. have conceded 21 goals over the last six Gameweeks (20th) and are 18th for 'Expected Goals Conceded' (xGC) (13.45).

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Noni Madueke (BOU)

Madueke has been key to Chelsea's recent run of form and the winger has played 547 minutes (second) over the last six Gameweeks. He has racked up 42 FPL points over that period (third) with three goals and two assists. His underlying numbers are also very good, he is fourth for shots (15) and SoT (six) but his BC involvements (one BC, two BC created) are the fourth lowest in the comparison.

Callum Hudson-Odoi (bur)

Forest will be looking to confirm their Premier League status for next season as they travel to Burnley on the final day, Hudson-Odoi has been a key player for them over the last six Gameweeks with three goals. The winger is second in the comparison for shots (18), third for SoT (eight) and fourth for attempted assists (11). Like Madueke, his BC involvements (one BC, one BC created) are quite low but with their opponents Burnley chasing goals, it could be a very open game.

What do the Projections Say?

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As the above image from our Predicted Points & Stats tool shows, B. Johnson (5.1) is projected to score the most points amongst the players in question with Havertz (4.9) and Olise (4.7) close behind. Madueke is sixth (4.2) with Hudson-Odoi a way behind on 3.6.

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