As the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) deadline looms closer, it is time to decide what to do with our precious free transfer(s). Aside from playing chips or selecting a captain, our transfers are the single most important aspect of our FPL campaign.

Gameweek 9 is here and so is our biggest offer of the season. Unlock Premium Plus for £1/month for three months by clicking here.

In this article we crunch the numbers, analyse the fixtures, take advice from the Algorithm, and decide which player to buy, which player to sell, and which player to keep for Gameweek 9.

Caveat: this article was written on Friday 20th October prior to most of the Premier League press conferences

BUY: Mohamed Salah

• Cost: £12.7m
• Selected by: 36.0%
• Projected Points (next 6 GWs): 40.3

It seems there are times when FPL managers can get away without having Mohamed Salah (£12.7m) in their teams, and times where he feels almost essential. As we approach Gameweek 9, we would argue that we are entering the latter stage.

As well as accruing 36 points in his last four appearances (average of 9 points per Gameweek), Liverpool are about to embark on a golden run of fixtures. In the short term, Liverpool face Everton, Nottingham Forest, and Luton. But, for those who like to plan ahead, Liverpool’s longer-term fixtures are also very good. Between now and Gameweek 16, only Manchester City away blemishes the otherwise excellent run of fixtures.

You probably don’t need me to tell you Salah’s underlying data is, as always, excellent, but for completeness, let’s take a look. Salah is ranked 1st, of all players, for xFPL points (65.61) and joint top for actual FPL points scored. While Erling Haaland (£14.0m) leads the way on xG (7.99), no-one can touch Salah’s combined xG + xA (9.62).

This, of course, is all par for the course for the Egyptian King. While his current FPL points rival, Ollie Watkins (£8.2m) is neck-and-neck with 59 points, the Aston Villa forward is massively outperforming his xA which suggests an unsustainability to his returns. Salah, on the other hand, is getting the returns as expected, and perfectly in line with his expected data.

Right now, there is no better FPL option.

SELL: Andrew Robertson

• Cost: £6.6m
• Selected by: 6.0%
• Projected Points (next 6 GWs): 21.5

We know that Andrew Robertson (£6.6m) dislocated his shoulder during Scotland’s 2-0 defeat to Spain and will certainly miss Gameweek 9. Rumours of surgery and a lengthy lay off, do not bode well for Robertson’s immediate prospects.

While the Algorithm is still waiting for concrete news relating to the extent of the injury to be confirmed, we safely surmise that the Scottish international will not be back anytime soon and, at £6.6m, he is far too expensive to hold for the medium-term.

For those looking to get rid of Roberston, Konstantinos Tsimikas (£4.4m) is a great replacement, as discussed in our Differential Focus (GW9) article.

KEEP: Bukayo Saka

• Cost: £8.5m
• Selected by: 48.3%
• Projected Points (next 6 GWs): 31.5

With over 300,000 managers having already made the switch, Bukayo Saka (£8.5m) is the second most transferred out player ahead of Gameweek 9. According to Transfer Analytics, over 40% of managers who shipped out the English winger, have done so to bring in Salah, our priority target (see above) for the weekend.

Mikel Arteta’s early press conference did little to shed light on his potential injury, coyly adding that Saka “wants to play” but divulging little else in terms of a meaningful update; this will no doubt add to the exodus.

But getting rid of Saka now could be a bad mistake. As well as racking up six goal involvements in his last five games, Arsenal are on the brink of a big fixture swing. According to the Fixture Planner, Arsenal is ranked 2nd best for attacking difficulty between Gameweeks 10 and 15. Gameweek 9’s away match to Chelsea (which is not as bad as it looks on paper) and an away fixture to Newcastle in Gameweek 11 are the only blots on an otherwise peachy run, which extends to Gameweek 15 when Arsenal visit Luton Town.

By Matt Whelan

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