In this blog, Fantasy Premier League (FPL) Gameweek 4's numbers are analysed to determine the best players and teams to target going forward.

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xFPL Review

Haaland tops the Custom Stats xFPL table for Gameweek 4 with a score of 11.6, the Norwegian International took four shots in the box (SiB), two of which were ‘big chances’ (BC), and attempted two assists, one of which was a BC. Alexander-Arnold, Solomon and Saka were joint-top for attempted assists with five apiece. Alexander-Arnold and Solomon both created one BC while Saka created none which explains his low xFPL score of 5.5 compared to 8.8 and 7.0 for the aforementioned duo respectively. No player took more shots (seven) or SiB (seven) than Edouard, the Palace forward landed three of his attempts on target but, just one of these was classified as a BC which meant an xFPL score of 9.1. Hat-trick hero Son scored from three of his five attempts, two of which were BCs and scored from all of his efforts on target (three). He looks to be thriving in the centre-forward role and registered an xFPL score of 10.5. Ferguson also put his hand up as a forward option with three goals from four shots of which just one was a BC. The Republic of Ireland international notched an xFPL score of 8.4 as he had just one BC involvement in total.

What is xFPL?

xFPL is calculated primarily using expected goals (xG), assists (xA), which combine as Fantasy Premier League (FPL) involvements (xG + xA = xI), as well as expected clean sheets (xCS). These numbers are a result of underlying statistics (i.e. shot type and location will give a probability of scoring = xG). xFPL is the combination of these statistics and factors in appearance and bonus points to give an overall expected FPL point score.

Early Transfer Activity Analysed

Evaluate transfer analytics to see which players are popular with other managers.

As the above image from our Transfer Analytics feature shows, Spurs assets are in high demand with both Son and Maddison seeing over 200,000 transfers in already. Managers are also opting to shuffle their forward lines with Alvarez and Ferguson also seeing over 200,000 new owners each. Romero (190,000) and Udogie (135,000) are also popular options with Spurs assets accounting for four of the top six transfer targets this week. Despite good fixtures on the horizon, managers have lost faith in Jackson after his blank against Forest, the Chelsea forward has been transferred out by over 161,000 managers with Isaak (128,000) and J. Pedro (114,000) also seeing significant sales. Alvarez accounts for nearly 35% of all transfer activity for forwards with J. Pedro, Jackson, Wissa and Watkins making way. In midfield, Spurs assets Maddison and Son dominate the transfers in with Rashford, B. Fernandes, Foden, Mitoma, Martinelli and even Sterling making way. With two attacking returns in as many games Spurs left back Udogie is a popular option accounting for seven of the top eight defender transfer combinations, Baldock, Gabriel, Beyer, Botman and Chilwell are the assets making way.

Alvarez vs Jackson

Use a range of pitch maps to help inform your transfers.

As the above images from the Fix Heatmaps feature shows, Alvarez has outscored Jackson by 18 FPL points over the first four Gameweeks with the Argentinian International playing every minute for Guardiola’s side. However, the underlying numbers for Jackson are superior with the Chelsea forward managing 3.94 Expected Goals (xG) compared to just 1.85 for the Man. City forward. They have taken a similar number of shots but these xG numbers indicate that Jackson is getting the better quality chances, but is unable to put them away. In terms of creativity, Alvarez is ahead significantly with 12 attempted assists compared to just three for Jackson. A look at the Fixture Planner image below indicates that both teams have excellent fixtures over the short term but the only caveat for Alvarez might be possible rotation once the Champions League games start next month. Man. City and Alvarez are a bit more of a known quantity with Chelsea players and the team still finding their feet under Pochettino so, opting for the Argentinian international over Jackson appears to be a wise move.

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