Looking for an early differential after falling behind in Fantasy Premier League?
These five FPL Gameweek 5 differentials are all selected by 10% of managers or fewer at the time of writing, giving them the potential to deliver meaningful rank gains.
The selections combine encouraging performances, strong 2025/26 statistics, favourable fixtures and predicted points from Fantasy Football Fix’s algorithm.
The selection rules are:
Price: £5.6m | Ownership: 6.5% | Predicted points: 4.6 | Fixture: Ipswich (H)
Thierno Barry has scored just once, but his underlying numbers suggest there is considerably more potential than that return implies.
The Everton striker leads his team for shots (14), shots in the box (13), big chances (five) and expected goals (2.94).
That is a healthy volume of opportunities in dangerous positions. Expected goals measures chance quality: Barry’s tally suggests an average finisher would have scored close to three goals from those opportunities. It does not guarantee future returns, but it strengthens the case for looking beyond his solitary strike.
Ipswich at home looks an excellent opportunity for Barry to add to his tally.
The visitors have conceded 10 goals, the joint-second most in the league, and are yet to keep a clean sheet. According to the Opta Stats Sandbox, they have also conceded the third-most shots (66), making Barry an attractive budget forward for Gameweek 5.
The Match Centre predicts a 1–0 win for Everton against Ipswich, with Barry scoring the only goal.
The longer-term picture needs a little more planning. Everton’s next six fixtures are Ipswich (H), Hull (A), Chelsea (H), Arsenal (A), Newcastle (A) and Coventry (H).
The opening two matches and Coventry meeting stand out, while the three-game stretch in between is less inviting, particularly the trip to Arsenal.
At £5.6m, however, Barry does not necessarily need to start every week. Rotating him with a fifth midfielder during the tougher fixtures could help managers target his best opportunities without spending another transfer.
Price: £6.9m | Ownership: 3.3% | Predicted points: 4.4 | Fixture: Sunderland (H)
Enzo Fernández is a more speculative selection, but a home meeting with Sunderland makes this an interesting moment to consider him.
Following his big summer move, the Argentina international appears to be a favourite of Enzo Maresca, potentially making him a more secure starter than several other Manchester City options.
While his minutes are not guaranteed, the Predicted Lineups tool gives him a 91% chance of starting against Sunderland.
There is a fair argument that other City midfielders offer greater attacking potential. Nevertheless, across the two matches in which he has featured, Fernández recorded four shots — the joint-second most among City players, behind only Erling Haaland.
The broader Opta snapshot adds useful context. His four attempts have produced 0.30 xG, while three attempted assists have contributed to 0.50 expected assists (xA). There are signs of both goal threat and creativity, even if the numbers do not yet make him an obvious purchase.
Waiting for a clearer picture of his role is reasonable. But Sunderland at home, a £6.9m price tag and just 3.3% ownership provide an opportunity for managers willing to move before an attacking return draws wider attention.
Price: £5.5m | Ownership: 1.4% | Predicted points: 4.5 | Fixture: Coventry (H)
Liam Delap is another pick that requires a little faith, but his performance against Aston Villa provided an encouraging starting point.
The English forward scored his first Nottingham Forest goal last Gameweek and took six shots, more than any other player in the match. With Coventry visiting next, there is an immediate opportunity to build on that breakthrough.
His previous form at Ipswich offers a reminder of the potential. The Opta Comparison figures from that spell show 12 goals from 11.01 xG, with 48 of his 68 shots coming inside the penalty area and 31 hitting the target.
Now 23, Delap still has room to develop. If he can rediscover that Ipswich form at Forest, £5.5m could prove excellent value. Coventry at home also makes him an intriguing immediate punt.
Price: £5.4m | Ownership: 5.5% | Predicted points: 5.2 | Fixture: Coventry (H)
Daniel Muñoz has the highest predicted points total of our five selections, and it is easy to see the appeal of his fixture.
Coventry are yet to score, giving Nottingham Forest a promising opportunity to keep a clean sheet. However, the Colombian international’s attacking involvement is what makes him particularly interesting for managers chasing a bigger haul.
Against Aston Villa, Muñoz recorded 0.73 expected goal involvements, combining 0.22 xG with 0.51 xA. That balance matters: he was involved both as a potential scorer and as a supplier of chances. His Opta Touchmap from the Match Centre demonstrates the dangerous positions he was getting into against Villa.
The 30-year-old’s attacking instincts are well established, and a home fixture against a side still searching for its first goal offers the chance to combine defensive points with attacking returns. At 5.5% ownership, that gives him considerable differential appeal.
Price: £5.0m | Ownership: 2.2% | Predicted points: 3.6 | Fixture: Hull (H)
Backing a Newcastle defender immediately after they conceded four goals to Leeds might seem an unusual recommendation. Malick Thiaw’s inclusion, however, is driven primarily by what comes next.
Newcastle sit top of the Fixture Planner for defensive difficultyover the next six Gameweeks, with a schedule of Hull (H), Coventry (A), Aston Villa (H), Crystal Palace (A), Everton (H) and Fulham (A).
The opening pair is particularly attractive. Hull at home is followed by a trip to Coventry, who are yet to score, giving Newcastle an opportunity to respond quickly to their disappointing defensive display.
At £5.0m and only 2.2% owned, the centre-back offers a fixture-led route into the Newcastle defence for managers prepared to back an improvement.
Barry has the strongest underlying goal threat of the budget forwards here, while Delap offers a cheaper, more speculative alternative. Enzo is an early bet on Manchester City minutes and involvement.
In defence, Muñoz combines the highest points projection with encouraging attacking numbers, while Thiaw is better suited to managers prioritising the next six fixtures.
Check the latest team news and consider how each selection fits your squad beyond this Gameweek. Low ownership becomes useful when it comes with a clear reason to expect points.
Ownership, prices, statistics and predictions reflect the supplied data at the time of writing.
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