Latest Content

5 FPL Differentials That Could Win You Your Mini-League in GW38

FPL Top Differentials
Fantasy Football Fix 21 May 2025

FPL Gameweek 38: Top 5 Differentials to Win Your Mini-Leagues

The final Gameweek of the 2024/25 Fantasy Premier League season is here — and it is your last chance to climb the rankings or snatch victory in your mini-league.

The key? Smart differential picks.

We’ve handpicked five players — each owned by fewer than 10% of managers — who could deliver big in Gameweek 38.

Our Differential Selection Criteria:

  • 3 attacking players (midfielders or forwards)
  • 2 defensive players (goalkeeper or defenders)
  • All with under 10% ownership

Looking for those under-the-radar stars to give you the edge?

Let’s dive in.


Need to save your FPL season? 

Get 30 days of Premium Plus – completely free! Pay absolutely nothing to unlock the tools that can turn your season around. 🤯

👉Click here now to claim your exclusive 30-day free Premium offer!


1. Evanilson: The Low-Owned Forward Set for a Big Finish

Evanilson has quietly had an excellent season for Bournemouth, racking up 126 FPL points thanks to 10 goals and 5 assists.

Premier League forwards ranked by xG per game

Among forwards who’ve played more than 1,000 minutes, his expected goals (xG) per game sits at 0.44 — the sixth-best in the league, as shown in the Opta Stats Sandbox. However, he’s only averaged 0.34 actual goals per game, suggesting there’s still room for positive regression in Gameweek 38.

In a recent article highlighting Bournemouth’s top FPL picks, we tipped Kluivert as the standout option. But with Kluivert unexpectedly substituted at half-time against Manchester City, Evanilson’s role in Bournemouth’s attack becomes even more important — and his appeal as a differential grows.

Penalty Taker Matrix for Bournemouth

Evanilson (aka de Lima Barbosa) was previously on penalties for Bournemouth but missed from the spot against Chelsea back in September — a moment that saw Kluivert eventually take over penalty duties, as shown in the Penalty Taker Matrix tool in our Preseason section. However, if Kluivert misses out, Evanilson could reclaim those duties in Gameweek 38.

With Wolves’ Cunha benched in Gameweek 37 and Newcastle’s Isak flagged, many FPL managers are hunting for a forward. Evanilson, owned by just 4.1% of teams, could be the ideal replacement. Bournemouth host Leicester in their final game — and with a projected 5.1 points, Evanilson looks well placed to end the season with a flourish.

2. Trossard: Form, Fixture and the Perfect Final-Day Punt

Leandro Trossard has emerged as Arsenal’s most effective attacking option in recent gamneweeks.

Arsenal players' FPL stats since Gameweek 31

Since Gameweek 31, he leads all Arsenal players in FPL points (47), goals (4), and bonus points (8), according to the Opta Stats Sandbox.

He’s also level with Saka for total shots (18), while topping the charts for shots in the box (15) and shots on target (8) over that period.

Arsenal face Southampton in Gameweek 38 — a fixture that could offer serious FPL potential. However, with the Gunners no longer having anything to play for, there is a risk of rotation. Managers should keep an eye out for reliable team news or early leaks before the deadline.

Trossard vs Martinelli FPL stats compared between Gameweek 31 to 37

Gabriel Martinelli, another low-owned option, has also shown solid form and could be a viable alternative. That said, when comparing the two using Opta’s Heatmap tool, Trossard stands out as the more advanced and involved attacking threat.

Despite the uncertainty around team selection, Trossard’s form and low ownership (3.8%) make him a highly appealing differential for the final Gameweek.

3. Callum Wilson: A Proven Scorer with Points to Prove

With Alexander Isak potentially sidelined, Callum Wilson suddenly becomes a very intriguing option for Gameweek 38.

Newcastle are still in the hunt for Champions League qualification — a motivation that should ensure a strong performance from their attacking players.

Callum Wilson stats for the 2023/24 season

Wilson has seen limited minutes this season, playing just 337 overall. But a look at the Comparison Matrix for his 2023/24 stats reveals he’s more than capable of delivering.

Despite the lack of game time, he managed 10 attacking returns in 19 appearances and averaged an impressive 0.82 goals per 90 minutes — proof that he can produce when called upon.

It’s possible his clinical edge has faded — but with a home fixture against an Everton side that has nothing left to play for, this could be the perfect moment for Wilson to remind us what he’s capable of.

Owned by very few managers and potentially leading the line in a must-win game, Wilson could be a high-upside differential for those willing to take the punt.

4. Huijsen: Low-Owned, High-Upside Pick for GW38

Dean Huijsen has been a standout performer for Bournemouth this season — so much so that the 20-year-old is on the verge of a £50 million dream move to Real Madrid. He’s contributed at both ends of the pitch, earning 100 FPL points with 3 goals and 1 assist.

Bournemouth defender FPL comparison

While Milos Kerkez is the more popular option with 17.6% ownership — thanks to his 8 attacking returns — Huijsen has played significantly fewer minutes (2,410 vs 3,252). To fairly assess their potential, a per-90-minute comparison using the Opta Heatmaps tool is revealing: Huijsen leads in most goal threat metrics, while Kerkez comes out ahead in creative stats.

With just 4.6% ownership, Huijsen represents a strong differential for managers chasing rank. Bournemouth face Leicester in Gameweek 38, and Huijsen’s projected 4.7 points reflect his potential to deliver at both ends of the pitch. He could be the key to outscoring those who’ve gone for his more widely owned teammate.

5. Kiwior: A Clean Sheet Differential With Southampton in Sight

With William Saliba currently flagged, Jakub Kiwior’s chances of starting in Arsenal’s final game have increased significantly. While some rotation is possible, Kiwior may benefit from greater security due to Arsenal’s defensive absences.

Premier League clubs ranked by goals conceded in away games

The Gunners have been outstanding on the road this season, conceding just 16 goals in away matches — five fewer than Everton, Man City, and Brentford (all tied for second), according to the Opta Stats Sandbox. They’ve kept 6 clean sheets away from home and, based on expected clean sheet data (7.18), should arguably have had even more — the highest xCS figure in the league.

Their opponents, Southampton, have struggled badly in attack at home, scoring just 12 goals in 18 matches — an average of 0.67 per game, the lowest in the division.

Kiwior is currently owned by just 2.5% of managers, and with a projected 4.6 points in Gameweek 38, he offers clean sheet potential and a solid route into a high-performing defence. For managers seeking a final-week differential, he could be the one that makes the difference.

Conclusion: FPL Differentials Could Define Your Season

As we head into the final gameweek of the season, the right differential could be the key to a dramatic last-minute surge — whether you’re chasing in mini-leagues or aiming to secure your rank.

Players like Evanilson, Trossard, Wilson, Huijsen, and Kiwior all offer high-upside potential with low ownership, ticking the boxes for managers seeking that one bold move to separate from the pack.

Yes, there are risks — be it rotation at Arsenal, fitness concerns at Newcastle, or penalty uncertainty at Bournemouth. But that’s where differentials thrive. With Gameweek 38 often throwing up surprises, calculated risks on in-form or overlooked players can pay off in a big way.

Make sure to monitor press conferences, potential team leaks, and last-minute updates ahead of the deadline — especially with uncertainty around players like Isak and Saliba. Information will be power this weekend.

Good luck, and may your final arrows of the season be green!


Save-your-FPL-blog

Get 30 days of Premium Plus – completely free! Pay absolutely nothing to unlock the tools that can turn your season around. 🤯

👉Click here now to claim your exclusive 30-day free Premium offer!

Unlock all tools and content. Start your free trial.

Join 89% of our members who won their main mini-league last season.

TRY IT NOW