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FPL Gameweek 30: Who to Target?

FPL Who To Target Gameweek 30
Fantasy Football Fix 6 March 2026

Who to Target for Fantasy Premier League 2025/26 – Gameweek 29

In this blog, we break down the standout performers, analyse the latest transfer trends, and reveal the early must-have picks for the upcoming Gameweeks of the 2025/26 FPL season.

Stay one step ahead of the competition with expert insights and smart strategies to maximise your FPL success!



Expected FPL (xFPL) Points Review - A look at the stats

As shown in the image below, João Pedro tops the Custom Stats xFPL table for Gameweek 29 with a score of 14.7. The Brazilian international was top for 'big chances' (four), shots in the box (five) and shots on target (four).

Stats for Gameweek 29

B. Fernandes was the Gameweek's most creative player with eight attempted assists, three of which were classified as 'big chances' created. The Portuguese international finished with an xFPL score of 8.8.

Haaland returned to the Man City team after missing out last weekend, but the 25-year-old was unable to get on the scoresheet. He had two shots in the box, both deemed 'big chances', but finished with an xFPL score of just 3.1.

Salah scored his first goal since Gameweek 10. The Egyptian international took two shots in the box and attempted no assists, but recorded an xFPL score of 8.0 thanks to the 'big chance' he was afforded.

Tavernier's owners were unlucky. The winger had five shots in the box, two of which were 'big chances', and also created a 'big chance'. He came away with no FPL returns, but his xFPL score of 7.7 suggests he deserved more.

What is xFPL?

xFPL is calculated primarily using expected goals (xG) and expected assists (xA), which combine to form expected FPL involvements (xG + xA = xI), along with expected clean sheets (xCS). These values are based on underlying statistics — for example, shot type and location determine the probability of scoring, which contributes to xG. xFPL then combines these metrics, factoring in appearance and bonus points to produce an overall expected FPL point score.

Early FPL Transfer Activity Analysed - Which players are FPL managers buying and selling?

As shown in the Transfer Analytics tool below, João Pedro is the most transferred-in player ahead of Gameweek 30, with nearly 200,000 FPL managers adding him to their teams at the time of writing.

Transfer Activity for Fantasy Premier League 2025/26 Gameweek 29

Semenyo scored his third goal over as many Gameweeks and continues to be a popular option with over 70,000 FPL managers bringing him in. B.Fernandes has also seen a similar number of transfers and is now just six FPL points behind Semenyo in the Midfielder standings.

Meanwhile, budget options Senesi and Anderson both delivered double-digit hauls and have seen over 100,000 transfers in combined.

Rogers' blank against Chelsea was his fifth over the last six Gameweeks and FPL managers have lost faith with the England international the most sold player.

Roefs and Wilson missed out entirely while consecutive blanks for Mbeumo and Haaland have also seen them shipped out in droves.

Looking at the top 10 forward transfer combinations, Haaland → João Pedro (14.3%) is the most popular transfer across all positions, perhaps with Blank Gameweek 31 in mind.

Top 10 Forward transfer combintaions

The Brazilian international occupies eight of the Top 10 with Ekitiké and Thiago the other forwards being bought. Meanwhile, Calvert-Lewin, Bowen, Strand Larsen and Kroupi.Jr are the forwards being sold.

The top 10 midfield transfer combinations are more scattered but Rice and Rogers occupy all 10 of the transfers out with Anderson, Tavernier, B.Fernandes, Semenyo, O.Dango, Gibbs-White and Palmer popular replacements.

The top 10 defender transfer combinations are spread out with Virgil, Hill, J.Timber and Senesi the most popular targets. Keane, Van de Ven, Dorgu, O'Reilly, Mukiele, Chalobah and Cash are the defenders on the chopping block.

Best Forward Pick - João Pedro vs Ekitiké

Moving Ekitiké to João Pedro is a popular move amongst FPL managers this Gameweek after the Brazilian's 19-point FPL haul against Villa.

Player Points Comparison

As the above image from our Player Heatmaps feature shows, João Pedro has accumulated a whopping 56 FPL points over the last six Gameweeks at an average of 9.3 FPL points per game while Ekitiké has managed a respectable 36 at an average of 6.0.

However, it is worth mentioning that the French international's returns came in only two of the last six Gameweeks while João Pedro has blanked just once over that period.

Player Statistics Comparison João Pedro vs Ekitiké

João Pedro has scored six goals over as many Gameweeks compared to three for Ekitiké and the Brazilian international outshines the Frenchman in almost every department.

He has taken more shots in the box (21 vs 15), landed more attempts on target (nine vs six) and racked up a significantly higher 'Expected Goals' (xG) tally (6.76 vs 4.69).

Ekitiké has attempted more assists (four vs six) and is ahead for 'Expected Assists' (xA) (0.35 vs 1.07) but the difference in creativity is only marginal compared to the goal threat.

Based on the above data, the popularity of the transfer makes sense.


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