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FPL Gameweek 25: Double Differential Options

Fantasy Football Fix AI 14 Feb. 2024

Fantasy Premier League: Double Differentials

In the vast ocean of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) options, finding those under-the-radar players who are owned by less than 10% of managers can be the key to climbing the ranks and outsmarting your competition. This week, we're focusing on three such hidden gems: Nathan Aké, Luis Díaz, and Ivan Toney. Each of these players have two fixtures in double gameweek 25, and their low ownership means they could be the differentials you need to gain an edge on you mini-league rivals.

Nathan Aké (Defender)

  • Cost in FPL: £5.0m
  • Overall Ownership: 5.01%
  • Top 100k Ownership: 2.79%
  • Predicted Points for the Next Gameweek: 8.9
  • Next Fixture: Chelsea (H) & Brentford (H)

Picking a Manchester City player is never easy and comes with the risk of rotation. However, Nathan Aké has played 90 minutes in the last eight Premier League games. Josko Gvardiol has also sustained an ankle ligament injury and could be out for two to three weeks, limiting Aké's competition for rotation.

Aké, the dependable Manchester City defender, has been a solid choice this season, appearing in 19 games and amassing a total of 70 FPL points. With only 3 clean sheets to his name demonstrates City's unfortunate ability to let in the odd goal. But Aké's defensive prowess has contributed significantly to their backline stability, conceding just 16 goals when playing. The upcoming fixtures against Chelsea and Brentford at home present a favourable clean sheet opportunity, with City's defence looking robust. Unfortunately, no Manchester City defender offers substantial attacking threat. However, the Dutch international is their joint top scoring defender (2 goals) and achieved the most FPL assists (3). Aké's recent minutes, and an ability to contribute both defensively and offensively, makes him an excellent differential pick for the upcoming gameweek.

Clean sheet projections for Manchester City

Manchester City are not only projected to keep the most clean sheets in double gameweek 25, but also over the next three gameweeks. As shown in the Predicted Points & Stats tool.

Luis Díaz (Midfielder)

  • Cost in FPL: £7.5m
  • Overall Ownership: 8.08%
  • Top 100k Ownership: 4.58%
  • Predicted Points for the Next Gameweek: 8.6
  • Next Fixture: Brentford (A) & Luton (H)

Luis Díaz, Liverpool's dynamic midfielder, has been lighting up the Premier League with his performances in the last three gameweeks. Having played 1487 minutes this season, Díaz has scored 5 goals and provided 4 assists. Interestingly, his expected goals (xG) of 5.42 suggest he's performing right on par with underlying data, indicating a sustainable level of output. In the last four gameweeks he has taken the second most shots (12) and had the second most shots on target (8) for Liverpool, bettered only by Darwin. As well as achieving the joint most FPL assists (2) alongside Elliot. Liverpool's upcoming fixtures, starting with an away game against Brentford and then a home tie with Luton, present him with further opportunities to add to his tally. Given his recent form, which includes impactful displays and a knack for being in the right place at the right time, Díaz is a compelling midfield option for FPL managers looking for a differential.

Screenshot 2024-02-14 at 10.24.27

The above image from the Opta Player Heatmaps tool, compares Díaz' stats for the season (left) to his performance in the last three gameweeks (right) per 90 minutes.

Ivan Toney (Forward)

  • Cost in FPL: £8.2m
  • Overall Ownership: 6.82%
  • Top 100k Ownership: 7.65%
  • Predicted Points for the Next Gameweek: 6.6
  • Next Fixture: Liverpool (H) & Manchester City (A)

Ivan Toney, Brentford's talismanic forward, has been a key figure for his team in recent weeks. In the limited appearances (four games) since his return from a ban, Toney has managed to score three goals and provide one assist, showcasing his goal-scoring prowess. His 2.18 xG and 0.39 xA figures indicate a player who's slightly over performing. However, Toney's ability to get into goal-scoring positions, as evidenced by his 10 shots and seven shots in the box, makes him a constant threat. Despite a challenging upcoming fixtures against Liverpool at home and Manchester City away in the double gameweek, Brentford have a fixture in blank gameweek 26 (West Ham away) and in blank gameweek 29 (Burnley away).

Toney's recent performances, marked by his relentless work rate and ability to create chances out of nothing, position him as an intriguing forward option for FPL managers looking for a player who could make a significant impact.

Screenshot 2024-02-14 at 10.29.02

Despite only being available for four of the last five Gameweeks, the above image from the Match Stats tool demonstrates how instrumental Toney is to Brentford's attack.

Double Differential Conclusion

In conclusion, Nathan Aké, Luis Díaz, and Ivan Toney are three players who could provide your FPL team with a much-needed boost this double gameweek. Their low ownership percentages mean they could be the differentials that propel you up your mini-leagues.

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