With the Gameweek 21 deadline now passed, we can dive into the data to see how Fantasy Premier League managers are navigating one of the busiest midweek rounds of the season. By comparing captaincy, effective ownership, chip usage and transfer behaviour across different manager tiers, some clear FPL trends begin to emerge — particularly among top-ranked managers.
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Despite blanking in his last three matches, Erling Haaland remains the most popular captain by a significant margin. With no standout alternative available, risk management continues to dominate decision-making at the top of the rankings. The Manchester City forward tops the predicted points for Gameweek 21, with projections of over seven points at home to Brighton, reinforcing why FPL managers are sticking with him.
Captaincy remains the single biggest driver of rank movement in FPL, and Gameweek 21 once again shows near-universal agreement among experienced managers.
| Player | Position | Team | Top 1M | Top 100K | Top 10K | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haaland | Forward | Man City | 93.7% | 96.2% | 96.7% | 79.8% |
| Thiago | Forward | Brentford | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.6% | - |
| Cunha | Midfielder | Man United | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 4.0% |
| Ekitiké | Forward | Liverpool | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 2.7% |
| Saka | Midfielder | Arsenal | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 1.7% |
Erling Haaland dominates captaincy across every manager tier. Despite blanking in three consecutive matches, more than 93% of the top 1 million managers have backed him with the armband, rising above 96% among the top 100K and top 10K. With Manchester City hosting Brighton in a favourable fixture, experienced FPL managers have opted against chasing a differential and are instead sticking with the heavily backed Haaland.
What stands out is just how little appetite there is for alternatives. No other player reaches even 2% captaincy among top 1M managers, reinforcing the idea that there is currently no credible replacement to challenge Haaland’s dominance.
Thiago offers the clearest differential, albeit at minimal ownership. The Brentford forward earns around 1% backing in the top 1M ahead of a home fixture against Sunderland, but top managers remain overwhelmingly risk-averse.
Cunha, Ekitiké and Saka remain fringe captaincy options only, with their popularity skewed more towards the overall game rather than high-ranbked FPL managers — further evidence that experienced players prioritise security over creativity when the margins are tight.
Effective ownership (EO) combines ownership with captaincy, giving a clearer picture of which players truly matter for rank protection and upside.
| Player | Position | Team | Top 1M | Top 100K | Top 10K | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haaland | Forward | Man City | 193.6% | 196.3% | 196.9% | 170.4% |
| Foden | Midfielder | Man City | 66.8% | 70.6% | 72.1% | 36.4% |
| Thiago | Forward | Brentford | 56.8% | 60.1% | 61.9% | 31.4% |
| Gabriel | Defender | Arsenal | 48.9% | 55.9% | 61.7% | 29.1% |
| Rogers | Midfielder | Aston Villa | 48.5% | 48.4% | 46.7% | 31.1% |
| Saka | Midfielder | Arsenal | 43.8% | 48.8% | 48.9% | 20.4% |
| Rice | Midfielder | Arsenal | 36.1% | 36.9% | 40.6% | 24.9% |
| Cunha | Midfielder | Man United | 36.1% | 44.1% | 49.4% | 13.5% |
Haaland’s EO approaches 200% among elite managers, meaning any return — or blank — will not have a huge impact on rank movement. For Gameweek 21, he is the definition of a shield pick.
Manchester City’s double-up continues, with Phil Foden posting effective ownership above 70% among the top 10K ahead of a home fixture against Brighton. His growing presence highlights how top managers are doubling down on City’s attack rather than spreading risk. In contrast, many lower-ranked managers have sold Foden this week, resulting in a price drop — a decision that could prove costly if he delivers.
Gabriel continues to stand out as a premium defensive option among experienced FPL managers. Since returning from injury, he has delivered two goals and 24 FPL points in his last two matches, pushing his effective ownership above 60% in the top 10K — even with a tough home fixture against Liverpool. His combination of reliability, goal threat and strong DEFCON output sets him apart from other defenders and helps justify his £6.7m price tag. Despite missing several matches, he's the top-scoring defender in FPL with 106 points.
Thiago has gone from FPL darling, to mass sell, and straight back into fashion following his hat-trick against Everton. A penalty-taking forward who regularly plays 90 minutes, is the league’s second-highest goal scorer with 14 goals, and costs just £7.0m, he is difficult to ignore in Fantasy Premier League. His effective ownership sits above 60% among elite managers ahead of Brentford’s home fixture against Sunderland, with even a small number of managers brave enough to hand him the captaincy.
Cunha’s EO rises sharply as rank improves, reaching close to 50% among the top 10K ahead of Manchester United’s trip to Burnley. It’s a clear example of elite managers targeting value based on fixtures rather than club reputation. However, this Gameweek could mark a turning point. With Bruno Fernandes rumoured to return, some managers may opt for a sideways switch, while others could move Cunha on with Manchester United facing Manchester City and Arsenal in their next two matches.
With the second set of chips now available following the Gameweek 20 reset, Gameweek 21 provides an early indication of how managers are approaching chip strategy for the remainder of the season.
| Chip | Top 1M | Top 100K | Top 10K | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildcard | 3.2% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.0% |
| Bench Boost | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.0% |
| Triple Captain | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.8% |
| Free Hit | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.8% |
Chip usage remains low across all tiers, suggesting managers are largely content with their squads. Wildcard deployment is steady at around 3% among experienced managers, while Bench Boost and Free Hit usage remain minimal.
Notably, there is almost no Triple Captain usage among elite players. Despite Haaland’s popularity, managers appear happy to wait for a double Gameweeks later in the season, reinforcing the patient, long-term mindset that defines successful FPL play.
| Metric | Top 1M | Top 100K | Top 10K | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Transfers | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| Average Points Hit | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.3 |
| Average Bank | £1.2m | £0.9m | £1.0m | £1.0m |
| Average Team Value | £102.2m | £103.0m | £102.8m | £100.5m |
The transfer data reinforces familiar FPL trends. Top FPL managers make fewer moves and avoid points hits, preferring incremental gains over aggressive short-term plays.
The gap in team value is particularly telling. Top 100K and top 10K managers operate with squads worth over £102.5m on average, giving them greater flexibility and stronger benches compared to the overall game.
As Gameweek 21 unfolds, these data points once again underline a key FPL lesson: success is built on patience, process and protecting rank — even when form charts tempt managers to gamble.
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