In this blog, Fantasy Premier League (FPL) Gameweek 1's numbers are analysed to determine the best players and teams to target going forward.

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xFPL review

Estupiñán tops the Custom Stats xFPL table for Gameweek 1 with an xFPL score of 10.9. The left-back created six chances which was only bettered by Eze (seven) and he also took two shots inside the box (SiB). Eze also led the way for shots (eight) of which five were in the box. However, he had only one ‘big chance’ (BC) involvement which meant a relatively low xFPL score of just 7.3. N. Jackson and Isak were tied for BC with three apiece but the Swedish international notched a higher xFPL score of 9.2 versus 6.8 for the Chelsea forward. In defence for Chelsea, Chilwell registered an xFPL score of 8.6 with one BC created and one BC in the box. The left-back looks like a great replacement for those who currently have some issues in their squad, with the likes of Gabriel or Stones. Meanwhile, for the Champions, Haaland picked up where he left off last season with four SiB and two BC leading to an xFPL score of 8.5.

Evaluate players with Opta statistics.

What is xFPL?

xFPL is calculated primarily using expected goals (xG), assists (xA), which combine as Fantasy Premier League (FPL) involvements (xG + xA = xI), as well as expected clean sheets (xCS). These numbers are a result of underlying statistics (i.e. shot type and location will give a probability of scoring = xG). xFPL is the combination of these statistics and factors in appearance and bonus points to give an overall expected FPL point score.

Early Transfer Activity Analysed

Evaluate transfer analytics to see which players are popular with other managers.

As the above image from our Transfer Analytics feature shows, Isak is the first bandwagon of the FPL season with nearly 300,000 transfers in at the time of writing. Chilwell and Saka are also popular options with 273,000 and 224,000 transfers in. A lot of Gabriel owners look to be going for Saliba, the Frenchman has seen 165,000 transfers with Estupiñán also gaining 150,000 new owners. De Bruyne’s injury has seen him become the most sold player after Gameweek 1 with nearly half a million managers parting ways with the Belgian International. Stones’ absence from the team sheet also means that over 400,000 managers have sold the centre back, and Ming’s injury means he is the third most transferred out. FPL managers clearly do not have faith in Gabriel’s return to the Arsenal starting lineup, with the Brazilian international losing nearly 150,000 owners. However, Timber's injury looks to be a bit more serious than first expected, so it would be wise to stick with Gabriel for the time-being - with the Brazilian defender likely to be assured of starts if Timber is out for a while. Taking all of the combinations into account, it reveals that managers are primarily making replacements at the back, with defensive transfers accounting for six of the top-seven. Chilwell, Saliba and R. James all appear to be popular options for managers with the likes of Gabriel, Stones and Mings in their squads

Which Teams to Target?

Analyse team’s upcoming fixtures.

Chelsea are top of the Fixture Analyser for the next six Gameweeks with home games against Luton, Forest and Villa. They also have favourable away games against West Ham, Bournemouth and Fulham, which means that their players should be at the top of transfer lists. Everton also have some decent fixtures, but it is hard to recommend any of their assets based on their Gameweek 1 showing. Brentford showed promise against Spurs and they have some great fixtures for the foreseeable. An away trip to Newcastle in Gameweek 5 is the only fixture against last season’s top six for The Bees.

You can check out the Elite XI: Team Reveal tool by clicking HERE.