In this blog, we break down the standout performers, analyse the latest transfer trends, and reveal the early must-have picks for the upcoming Gameweeks of the 2025/26 FPL season.
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As shown in the image below, Wilson tops the Custom Stats xFPL table for Gameweek 16 with a score of 12.3. The Welsh international took two shots in the box, landed both of them on target and also created two 'big chances'.
Cunha topped the charts for shots (eight), with five of those coming from inside the penalty area. However, only one was classified as a ‘big chance’. He also attempted three assists and finished with an xFPL score of 9.2.
Ekitiké led all players for shots in the box (six). Two of those chances were rated as ‘big chances’, with only Garnacho (three) recording more. He posted the highest xFPL score of the group at 9.6.
B. Fernandes was joint-top for attempted assists (five) and continued his fine form with another double-digit return (13 FPL points). That said, he managed just one shot in the box and had no ‘big chance’ involvement, which limited his xFPL score to 8.7.
Rogers continues to impress. The 23-year-old took five shots, three of them from inside the box, and registered one ‘big chance’ involvement. Despite this, he once again outperformed his underlying numbers, finishing with an xFPL score of 8.3.
xFPL is calculated primarily using expected goals (xG) and expected assists (xA), which combine to form expected FPL involvements (xG + xA = xI), along with expected clean sheets (xCS). These values are based on underlying statistics — for example, shot type and location determine the probability of scoring, which contributes to xG. xFPL then combines these metrics, factoring in appearance and bonus points to produce an overall expected FPL point score.
As shown in the Transfer Analytics tool below, Wilson is the most transferred-in player ahead of Gameweek 17, with over 650,000 FPL managers adding him to their teams at the time of writing.
Back-to-back braces for Ekitiké have seen the French international transferred in by over 450,000 FPL managers. Midfielders Foden and B. Fernandes are also attracting plenty of new owners following consecutive double-digit hauls.
At the other end of the spectrum, the departures of Mbeumo and Ndiaye to the Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) have prompted mass sales. Muñoz’s injury has made him the most transferred-out defender, while frustrated Woltemade owners have also decided to move on from the German international.
Looking at the top 10 forward transfer combinations, Woltemade → Ekitiké (30.7%) is the single most popular move across all positions, with Mateta → Ekitiké (15.5%) in second. Calvert-Lewin, Thiago and Marc Guiu are the other popular forwards with Raúl, Mateta and Welbeck also being sold.
In midfield, the top 10 combinations are dominated by Wilson, who features in eight of them. B.Fernandes and Foden are the other midfielders being bought with the AFCON trio of Mbeumo, O.Dango and Ndiaye being sold in droves.
Getting rid of Muñoz is the priority in defence with his team-mate Guehi the most popular replacement. O'Reilly is also a popular option after back to back clean sheets. Chalobah is now the second-highest scoring defender in the game with 91 FPL points and is also trending upwards.
Guehi (92) and Chalobah (91) sit at the top of the defender point rankings and are both excellent options to target over the Christmas period.
As the above image from our Player Heatmaps feature shows, they have both been scoring consistent points over the last eight Gameweeks with Chalobah (50) slightly ahead for FPL points per game to Guehi (6.0). The former missed one game over that period due to injury.
As the above statistics show, both centre-backs have found the back of the net once over the last eight Gameweeks and have had a similar number of shots (four). However, Guehi's attempts have been of far better quality with 0.46 'Expected Goals' (xG) compared to just 0.06 for the latter.
He has the edge for creativity too with three attempted assists compared to just one for Chalobah.
As the above image from our Fixture Analyser shows, Chelsea are ranked 20th for Defence Difficulty over the Christmas period with none of the matchups looking particularly favourable for a clean sheet.
Palace also have a difficult schedule, they are ranked 14th with the fixtures toughening up from Gameweek 20 in particular when they play Newcastle and Villa.
Based on the above analysis, Guehi appears to be the superior pick.
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