Latest Content

FPL GW16: The Captaincy & EO Shifts Deciding Your Gameweek

FPL GW16 The Captaincy & EO Shifts Deciding Your Gameweek
Fantasy Football Fix AI 13 Dec. 2025

FPL Gameweek 16: What the Post-Deadline Data Really Reveals

Gameweek 16 has landed in chaotic style as we head into the busiest festive period of the Fantasy Premier League season. With every manager receiving five free transfers ahead of the AFCON disruption, the post-deadline data shows huge shifts in ownership, captaincy and strategy across all ranks.

It was an incredibly active transfer market, with managers taking full advantage of the expanded transfer allowance — and the top 10k approached the week very differently compared to the wider FPL population.

Below is a clear breakdown of the latest numbers from the top 1M, 100k and 10k tiers, including updated captaincy figures, effective ownership trends and the standout patterns that will shape rank movement over the next few Gameweeks.



Captaincy Trends

The captaincy landscape for Gameweek 16 shows a clear split between casual managers and elite players — with some surprising divergences at the very top.

PlayerTop 1MTop 100kTop 10k
Haaland44.4%47.4%48.0%
Saka36.7%39.6%39.1%
Thiago9.7%4.3%4.6%
B. Fernandes1.4%3.0%2.1%
Eze1.4%1.2%1.5%

Erling Haaland remains the most captained player among top managers, with 47.4% captaincy in the top 100k. His effective ownership (below) shows why failing to captain him is a huge risk to rank.

Bukayo Saka is the standout challenger, especially in the wider game where his captaincy actually surpasses Haaland. Among the top 100k his backing rises to 39.6%, making him the only real alternative in elite circles.

The biggest contrast comes from Thiago. While 9.7% of the top 1M handed him the armband, elite managers showed far less confidence, with just 4–5% captaining him. This reflects a more cautious approach toward Brentford attackers despite their home fixture against Leeds.


Effective Ownership (EO)

Effective ownership is the metric that truly dictates rank movement — and the updated numbers show huge pressure points for and against several key assets.

PlayerTop 1M EOTop 100k EOTop 10k EO
Haaland136.6%150.4%147.0%
Saka100.0%93.0%97.7%
Thiago96.7%86.9%87.3%
Foden79.7%79.3%78.7%
B. Fernandes51.2%61.5%61.8%
Raya51.2%55.4%53.7%
Rice26.0%28.9%28.2%

Haaland’s EO in the top 100k is an enormous 150.4%. That means any haul from the City striker will heavily punish non-owners and non-captainers. His ownership strength remains unmatched.

Saka is now effectively “template-plus,” hitting 100% EO in the top 1M and close to full coverage across elite tiers. This is one of the biggest ownership surges of the season so far.

Thiago also sits at near-template levels despite low captaincy. His 96.7% EO in the top 1M confirms that almost every competitive manager owns him.

Bruno Fernandes is no longer a differential, jumping to 61–62% EO in the top 100k and 10k. These managers are backing United’s improved attacking numbers.

Chip Usage

Chip strategy has been one of the most interesting dynamics of the season, especially with managers navigating two full sets for the first time. Gameweek 16 continued that trend, revealing clear differences in how casual and elite managers approached their chips.

ChipTop 1MTop 100kTop 10k
Bench Boost4.8%2.6%3.0%
Free Hit6.8%3.9%5.3%
Triple Captain3.4%1.3%1.1%
Wildcard0.0%2.0%2.5%

The Triple Captain chip has already been used by most managers, and the low activation in GW16 (just 1.1% in the top 10k) shows that elite players are holding it back for a premium fixture. Those who still have it will almost certainly be eyeing Haaland at home to West Ham in GW17, which profiles as one of the strongest single-game captaincy opportunities of the season.

Wildcard usage was again highest among elite managers, with 2.5% of the top 10k reshaping their squads. This indicates a proactive approach, with managers positioning themselves early for the intense festive fixture run rather than reacting after the fact.


Transfer Behaviour & Team Value

MetricTop 1MTop 100kTop 10k
Average Transfers3.13.03.0
Average Hits Taken0.00.00.0
Average Team Value£101.9m£102.6m£102.6m
Average Bank£1.0m£0.9m£0.9m

With every manager receiving five free transfers ahead of the AFCON disruption, Gameweek 16 produced one of the cleanest transfer markets of the season. All tiers — from the top 1M to the top 10k — recorded 0.0 average hits, a direct reflection of the expanded transfer allowance.

Despite this, elite managers still demonstrated greater efficiency, averaging exactly three transfers, compared with 3.1 in the broader top 1M. The extra 0.1 transfers in the wider tier signals that many casual managers simply used all five transfers without the same level of planning or structural intent.

Team value continues to highlight the gap between tiers: top 100k and top 10k squads sit at £102.6m, around £0.7m higher than the top 1M. This accumulated value — built through better timing on bandwagons and selling players at the right moment — becomes increasingly important as the festive schedule intensifies.

Bank balances remain similar across all tiers, though casual managers hold marginally more money. Elite managers continue to invest more aggressively, keeping minimal funds idle to maximise squad strength.


Final Thoughts

Gameweek 16 has exposed the growing strategic divide in Fantasy Premier League. Elite managers have shown a clear willingness to:

With the festive schedule delivering rapid-fire fixtures, these strategic foundations will be decisive. Staying aligned with elite trends — while identifying the right differentials — will give managers the best chance to climb the ranks during the toughest period of the season.


Festive-£1-Blog

For a limited time only, you can unlock Premium Plus for 30 days for just £1 — the perfect boost for the busy festive schedule. 🎁

👉 Get Premium Plus for £1 now

Unlock all tools and content. Try Premium for £1.

Join 89% of our members who won their main mini-league last season.

GET PREMIUM FOR £1