As the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) deadline looms closer, it is time to decide what to do with our precious free transfer(s). Aside from playing chips or selecting a captain, our transfers are the single most important aspect of our FPL campaign.

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In this article we crunch the numbers, analyse the fixtures, take advice from the Algorithm, and decide which player to buy, which player to sell, and which player to keep for Gameweek 14.

Caveat: this article was written on Friday 1st December prior to the Premier League press conferences

BUY: Bryan Mbeumo

• Cost: £7.0m
• Selected by: 28.1%
• Projected Points (next 6 GWs): 24.6

With three double-digit hauls so far this season, Bryan Mbeumo (£7.0m) has stepped up to fill the huge hole left by team mate Ivan Toney (£7.9m). The fourth highest scoring midfielder in FPL so far, Mbeumo has offered a brief respite to non-owners by blanking against Liverpool and Arsenal in the last two Gameweeks – although it could be argued that he was unlucky not to get any returns after racking up 1.4 xGI in those same fixtures.

But the tricky patch in the schedule is now over. Brentford are about to enter into an extended run of great fixtures which lasts all the way to Gameweek 21. This run starts with Luton in Gameweek 14, a fixture in which there will be multiple opportunities for returns.

According to Opta Stats Sandbox, few can beat Mbeumo’s combined xG and xA (8.44) meaning his underlying stats are as promising as his actual returns (9). To add to Mbeumo’s appeal, he is a nailed starter and on penalties – making him a legitimate captaincy option this weekend. If you have survived without the Cameroon international so far, then now is the time to put that right.

Owners, of course, should be aware that Brentford blank in Gameweek 18 – note: in the above screenshot we have shown Brentford’s fixtures with Gameweek 18 excluded – but this is almost certainly going to be compensated for by a double Gameweek in 20.

SELL: Jarrod Bowen

• Cost: £7.6m
• Selected by: 23.2%
• Projected Points (next 6 GWs): 20.0

As always, it is worth keeping an ear open for what is said during the press conferences. However, it is looking increasingly unlikely that Jarrod Bowen (£7.6m) will be fit for Gameweek 14. This is a real shame for his 2.7m owners, many of whom brought him in for his good run of fixtures.

Even if Bowen returns in time for Gameweek 15, that fixture is away to Tottenham, which isn’t ideal. While Gameweek 16 sees West Ham enjoy two easier fixtures (Fulham and Wolves), the fact remains that the midfield spots are far too valuable to be taken up with a £7.6m player who remains a doubt.

According to Transfer Analytics, over 400,000 managers have already transferred out the West Ham talisman, almost half of whom have moved to Mbeumo.

KEEP: Son Heung-min

• Cost: £9.6m
• Selected by: 38.4%
• Projected Points (next 6 GWs): 35.3

With over a quarter of a million transfers out already (Transfer Analytics), Son Heung-min (£9.6m) is the third most transferred out player ahead of Gameweek 14.

The driving factors of this trend will almost certainly be a very difficult away fixture against Manchester City, coupled with the fact that Spurs have seemingly hit a wall, thus ending their unbeaten run in Gameweek 10. Since then, they have suffered three back-to-back defeats, with Son blanking in all three.

Owners – and particularly captainers – will have been most disgruntled by the lack of a return for Son against Aston Villa. Between disallowed goals and near misses, this could have been a 20-point return on another day.

While frustrating, we all know how clinical Son can be. Once the City game is over, Spurs have a decent run until Gameweek 20. Only games against Newcastle and Brighton pose any real threat during that run, but it is worth bearing in mind that the former have a depleted back line and the latter aren’t great defensively.

Getting rid of Son is unlikely to be too damaging in the short-term, but longer-term it could come back to haunt sellers.

By Matt Whelan

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