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FPL Gameweek 13: Who to Target?

FPL Who To Target
Fantasy Football Fix 26 Nov. 2024

Who To Target for Fantasy Premier League 2024/25 Gameweek 13

Dive into our weekly analysis where we spotlight the top performers from the previous Gameweek, examine the latest FPL transfer trends, and reveal the must-have players to consider for your lineup this week.

Stay ahead of the competition in your Fantasy Premier League journey with our expert insights and strategic tips designed to boost your success!


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Expected FPL Points Review - A Look at the Stats

As the below image shows, Salah tops the Custom Stats xFPL table for Gameweek 12 with a score of 16.7. No player was afforded more 'big chances' (five) than the Egyptian international, while he was also top for shots in the box (seven) and shots on target (four).

Fantasy Premier League Stats Gameweek 12

After two consecutive blanks, Saka reminded FPL managers of his pedigree with a 13-point FPL haul. The England international took six shots and attempted four assists, but had only one 'big chance' involvement overall which meant a relatively low xFPL score of 8.9.

The weekend's joint-top highest scorer with 16 points, Cunha took three shots in the box, however, was afforded just one 'big chance'. The Brazilian international continues to defy the underlying numbers and registered an xFPL score of 8.4.

Haaland registered an xFPL score of 6.1, he was joint-top for shots in the box (seven) alongside Salah, the Norwegian international was afforded two 'big chances' and landed just two of his seven efforts on target.

Isak was also a popular pick going into the Monday Night fixture, the 25-year-old took five shots in the box and had one 'big chance' involvement which meant a low xFPL score of just 4.7.

What is xFPL?

xFPL is calculated primarily using expected goals (xG), assists (xA), which combine as Fantasy Premier League (FPL) involvements (xG + xA = xI), as well as expected clean sheets (xCS). These numbers are a result of underlying statistics (i.e. shot type and location will give a probability of scoring = xG). xFPL is the combination of these statistics and factors in appearance and bonus points to give an overall expected FPL point score.

Early FPL Transfer Activity Analysed - Which Players are FPL managers buying and selling?

As the below image from our Transfer Analytics feature shows, Cunha is the most popular transfer in for Gameweek 13 so far with nearly 500,000 FPL managers bringing him in at the time of writing.

Fantasy Premier Transfer Activity Gameweek 13

Seven of the top eight transfers in, Cunha, João Pedro, Saka, Salah, Jackson and Maddison all scored double digit hauls over the weekend, with the top three seeing over a million transfers combined.

With just one goal across his last three appearances, nearly half a million FPL managers have parted ways with Haaland. While Raúl, Luis Díaz and Semenyo have also seen approximately 150,000 transfers out each.

A look at the Top 10 forward transfer combinations shows that Cunha and João Pedro occupy eight of the 10 combinations, with Isak and Jackson being the two others. Haaland, Raúl, Calvert-Lewin, Solanke and Wood are the players making way.

gw13target3

As the above image shows, Saka dominates the midfield transfer combinations with all 10 spots being occupied by the England international. With budget options such as Semenyo, McNeil, Rogers and Winks being upgraded, it's clear that FPL managers have money to spend after selling Haaland.

In defence, Gvardiol, Alexander-Arnold and Lewis account for all the top 10 defenders out with the North London trio of Gabriel, Porro and Timber popular. Aït-Nouri, Hall and Veltman are the budget options being brought in.

Isak vs N. Jackson - Best Haaland replacement?

Fantasy Premier League Points Comparison Wissa vs Cunha

As the above image from our Opta Player Heatmaps feature shows, Isak has outscored N. Jackson by four FPL points over the last four Gameweeks. Over the season, N. Jackson (72) has outscored Isak (49) significantly, but with the Swedish international's red hot form over the aforementioned period, a smaller sample size is used.

Isak vs N. Jackson stats last four Gameweeks

Isak (three) has scored more goals than N. Jackson (two) over the last four Gameweeks and posts significantly better underlying numbers too. The Newcastle forward has racked up 12 shots in the box to the Chelsea man's seven and has nearly triple the 'Expected Goals' (xG) tally (3.03 vs 1.25).

In terms of creativity, N. Jackson marginally has the edge with six attempted assists compared to five for Isak, but the 'Expected Assists' (0.37 vs 0.85) gap indicates that the gap maybe wider than it appears.

Fixture Difficulty Rating Gameweek 13-18 Fantasy Premier League 2024/25

As the above image from our Fixture Difficulty Ratings shows, Chelsea and Newcastle are ranked fifth and sixth for 'Attack Difficulty' over the next six Gameweeks so there is not much to split the two in terms of fixture ease.


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