As the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) deadline looms closer, it is time to decide what to do with our precious free transfer(s). Aside from playing chips or selecting a captain, our transfers are the single most important aspect of our FPL campaign.

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In this article we crunch the numbers, analyse the fixtures, take advice from the Algorithm, and decide which player to buy, which player to sell, and which player to keep for Gameweek 13.

Caveat: this article was written on Friday 24th November prior to the Premier League press conferences

BUY: Cole Palmer

• Cost: £5.2m
• Selected by: 9.1%
• Projected Points (next 6 GWs): 21.9

In last week’s article, we recommended bringing in Jarrod Bowen (£7.7m); for the 280,000 managers who did so, that decision will have been bittersweet. An 8-pointer against Nottingham Forest will have justified their decision, but persistent concerns of a knee injury over the international break will have made owners anxious.

It’s unclear who should be our next best transfer target, with Bryan Mbeumo (£6.9m) about to face Arsenal in Gameweek 13. Perhaps waiting until Gameweek 14, when Brentford faces Luton, would be a smarter move here.

With the above in mind, we are recommending a move for Cole Palmer (£5.2m) – this may seem counter-intuitive given Chelsea’s short-term fixtures, but a move for Palmer now, may be more fruitful than it appears on paper.

Clearly, Palmer has been Chelsea’s best player and has been instrumental in what feels like the beginning of a Chelsea resurgence. According to Opta Stats Sandbox, he has also been one of the best FPL assets over the last six Gameweeks, racking up 45.80 xFPL points (ranked 2nd), and 43 actual FPL points (ranked 4th).

As of Gameweek 16, managers will be flocking to Chelsea assets, as they embark on a golden run of fixtures. But if we look in more depth at the ‘difficult’ period which precedes this, we can see that it may not be quite as bad as it seems.

Starting with Newcastle (away) in Gameweek 13 – one of the worst fixtures on paper, Newcastle is ranked the 3rd best defence in terms of Expected Goals Conceded (xGC). But with 13 of their senior squad members flagged, they are currently in the midst of an availability crisis; a surprise 2-0 loss to Bournemouth in Gameweek 12, shone the spotlight on this.

In Gameweek 14, Chelsea face Brighton at Stamford Bridge. This is likely to be an attacking affair with goals from both sides. In Gameweek 15, Chelsea visits Old Trafford, a fixture which, historically, would instil fear into fans, but is currently viewed as an opportunity for 3 points, especially by the bigger teams.

So, with the short-term fixtures not quite as bad as they first seem, we are left with one of the best FPL assets in the game, who takes penalties for his side, and costs just £5.2m. Investing early could be the way forward.

SELL: Matty Cash

• Cost: £5.2m
• Selected by: 32.8%
• Projected Points (next 6 GWs): 18.6

With so many players with minor (yellow) flags, this week’s press conferences will be more important than ever for informing our moves. For the purposes of this article, let us imagine that all yellow flagged players are available for selection.

In that case, Matty Cash (£5.2m) – who is himself flagged – leads the way for popular FPL assets who may have reached the end of the road. With just one return in his last five appearances, owners will feel rightfully aggrieved at the Polish international’s performance over what was a great run of fixtures.

In the next five Gameweeks, Cash can expect a reprieve against just Bournemouth in Gameweek 14, as Villa face Spurs, Manchester City, Arsenal and Brentford in the others.

KEEP: Kaoru Mitoma

• Cost: £6.6m
• Selected by: 34.2%
• Projected Points (next 6 GWs): 19.4

With over 400,000 transfers out already (Transfer Analytics), Brighton’s Kaoru Mitoma (£6.6m) is the second most transferred out player ahead of Gameweek 13. News of an injury sustained over the international break has caused a mass exodus of the Japanese international, with over 39% of sellers switching him for Mbeumo.

But a video posted by Brighton FC’s official Twitter/X account shows a fully kitted up (and booted) Mitoma jogging at the training centre under the caption: “The boys are back at work”. This, of course, is not conclusive proof of his availability, but is a very positive sign that he could well be in contention for Brighton’s fixture against Nottingham Forest.

Keep an ear at Brighton’s press conference and don’t be hasty with the transfer.

By Matt Whelan

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