Liverpool FPL Analysis: Who’s Worth Owning Ahead of Gameweek 12?

Liverpool started the 2025/26 season in style, winning their first five Premier League matches — though several of those victories came late and weren’t entirely convincing.

Since then, things have taken a turn. Five defeats in their last six have dented confidence, and performances under Arne Slot have fallen well below early expectations.

Still, plenty of FPL managers have had Gameweek 12 circled for weeks. As highlighted in our recent piece, The Fixture Runs Every FPL Manager Needs to Target Before Gameweek 12, Liverpool sit top of the Fixture Planner with one of the best runs on offer.

So, the question remains — with those fixtures turning, is it finally time to trust their assets again?

Let’s dive into the numbers and see which Liverpool players, if any, deserve a place in your Fantasy Premier League squad.

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Defence: Leaky and Unreliable

Liverpool’s defensive numbers paint a worrying picture — they’ve been anything but solid.

Since Alisson (£5.4m) picked up his injury in Gameweek 6, the Reds have struggled for stability at the back, keeping just one clean sheet (against Aston Villa) and conceding 12 goals in that spell. Constant full-back rotation hasn’t helped either, leaving them vulnerable to quick counter-attacks.

As shown in the Opta Stats Sandbox, their expected goals conceded (xGC) of 12.63 over that period ranks second-worst in the league, behind only Burnley (14.46).

However, with Alisson close to returning and Liverpool sitting top for defensive fixture difficulty in the Fixture Planner up to Gameweek 15, there’s every reason to expect improvement over the coming weeks.

Attack: Underwhelming, but Fixtures Could Spark a Revival

As shown in the Opta Stats Sandbox, Liverpool have scored 18 goals, yet their xG of 21.77 ranks third-highest in the league — suggesting they’ve been slightly unlucky not to have converted more of their chances.

They also sit top for total shots (163) and fourth for big chances (33), though their finishing hasn’t quite matched the underlying numbers.

Context is important, though. Arne Slot’s side have already faced seven of the current top 10 teams, making their attacking data look even more impressive. Over the next two Gameweeks, they’ll come up against two of the league’s worst defences for xGC — Nottingham Forest (18.39, 3rd worst) and West Ham (19.87, 2nd worst).

It all points towards a potential turning point for Liverpool’s attack — and if you’re planning to invest in their assets, now looks like the time to do it.

Who Do the Top 1M FPL Managers Own?

Using the Insight Live tool, we can see how Liverpool ownership differs between the overall game and the top one million engaged managers.

Unsurprisingly, Virgil van Dijk (£5.9m) remains the most popular Red among active managers, owned by 14.3% of the top 1M compared to 23% overall. His combination of attacking threat and nailed minutes clearly appeals to those prioritising reliability in defence.

Cody Gakpo (£7.5m) sits just behind at 13.4% ownership in the top 1M (vs 13% overall), showing that more serious managers are still backing him despite recent rotation concerns.

In contrast, Mohamed Salah (£14.2m) is owned by just 9.4% of the top 1M, compared to 23.9% overall. This gap suggests that while many casual managers have held on, more engaged players are hesitant — not just because of his potential AFCON absence, but also due to his steep price tag and relatively modest returns in recent weeks.

Further down, Hugo Ekitiké (£8.6m) is owned by 5.9% of the top 1M and 15.4% overall, and Ryan Gravenberch (£5.6m) appears in 3.7% of active squads (vs 4.7% total).

Dominik Szoboszlai (£6.6m) continues to tick over quietly, featuring in 3.1% of the top 1M teams and 5.1% overall.

Van Dijk: The Reliable Route Back into Liverpool’s Defence

Virgil van Dijk (£5.9m) remains the most secure way into Liverpool’s backline — no player at the club has played more minutes (990) this season.

He currently ranks joint-fourth among all defenders for Defensive Contribution (DEFCON) points, and joint-second for total DEFCON returns, underlining both consistency and multiple routes to FPL points.

Despite being a major set-piece threat, Van Dijk is yet to score this season — though he’s had two 'big chances' and continues to be a menace in the opposition box.

With Nottingham Forest and West Ham up next, both among the worst teams in the league for goals conceded from set plays, he looks well-placed to deliver attacking returns alongside defensive points in the coming weeks.

Salah: Premium Price, Premium Potential?

Mohamed Salah (£14.2m) has delivered six attacking returns in 11 matches, but just one double-digit haul — far from the explosive output FPL managers have come to expect.

He remains Liverpool’s penalty taker and creative heartbeat, having attempted 21 assists and created five 'big chances', yet his hefty price tag makes him difficult to justify without consistent captaincy appeal.

The upcoming AFCON (spanning Gameweeks 17–22, with a possible early departure after GW16) also adds uncertainty, prompting many engaged managers to delay investment.

However, there are signs of life. Salah is averaging 5.6 points per home game according to the Opta Heatmaps tool, and the Predicted Points & Stats tool is projecting him to score 7.0+ points in Gameweek 12 — higher than Erling Haaland, who faces Newcastle away.

With Nottingham Forest visiting Anfield, brave managers could find Salah a viable differential captaincy option.

His underlying numbers are trending upward, and if Liverpool’s attack finds its rhythm again, Salah could quickly remind us why he’s FPL royalty.

Szoboszlai: Set-Piece Value with Steady Returns

Dominik Szoboszlai (£6.6m) has arguably been Liverpool’s most consistent performer this season. A nailed-on starter under Arne Slot, he combines set-piece duties with DEFCON potential — his 129 DEFCON rank fifth among midfielders, offering return potential even when attacking output is limited.

Creatively, Szoboszlai has been at the heart of everything Liverpool do going forward, producing 16 attempted assists and two big chances created, with an xA of 1.53. He’s also shown a real willingness to get involved himself, firing off 21 shots — behind only Salah (26) and Gakpo (27) among Liverpool players.

The finishing touch has been missing so far (xG 1.49), but the intent is clear — he’s heavily involved in both phases of attack, offering multiple routes to points at a sub-£7.0m price tag.

Just a note of caution: he’s on four yellow cards, meaning one more booking would trigger a one-match suspension.

Other Liverpool Players to Watch

Cody Gakpo (£7.5m) – Could emerge as an intriguing option if he regains a regular starting spot. He’s created five big chances – the joint-most in the Premier League – and his 3.26 xA ranks second only to Doku (3.50). The creativity is there, but minutes remain the key concern.

Ryan Gravenberch (£5.6m) – Currently Liverpool’s highest FPL points-per-game scorer (5.78), yet that form looks unsustainable. He’s netted three goals from just 0.48 xG, suggesting significant overperformance. A short-term option at best.

Ibrahima Konaté (£5.4m) – A cheaper alternative to Van Dijk with set-piece threat, but the stats lean towards the Dutchman. Konaté’s DEFCON (8.7 vs 10.8) and baseline BPS (4.5 vs 4.9) both trail Van Dijk’s, making the premium likely worth paying.

Alisson (£5.4m) – Expected back after the international break and could be pivotal in restoring defensive stability.

Full-backs – Conor Bradley (£5.0m) has logged the most minutes (387) over the last six Gameweeks, yet heavy rotation continues to make all Liverpool full-backs an avoid for now.

Elite XI Insights: What the Pros Think About Liverpool Assets

To get a sense of how experienced managers are approaching Liverpool’s upcoming fixture swing, we spoke to two of our Elite XI: Team Reveal managers — both boasting elite-level consistency at the very top of FPL.

These are the kind of managers whose decisions are backed by years of proven results and meticulous data-driven thinking. So, who are they backing from Liverpool ahead of Gameweek 12?

Mark Mansfield: “Only Three Liverpool Players Are Worth Considering”

“Coming into a great run of fixtures for Liverpool, it’s a real head-scratcher who to target,” said Mark Mansfield, a manager with an incredible record of seven Top 10k finishes.

“Looking across the squad, there’s no obvious value right now — the team isn’t performing, individuals aren’t delivering, and there aren’t many nailed options.”

For Mark, only three players make the shortlist: Van Dijk, Salah, andSzoboszlai.

“I’d need some convincing that Szoboszlai is anything more than a coverage pick. He’s taking plenty of shots, but the xG per shot suggests they’re not high-quality chances. In that £6.0–7.0m bracket, there are stronger options elsewhere.”

The two-time Top 1k finisher believes Van Dijk could emerge as the most interesting pick from a value perspective.

“Van Dijk’s appeal is in his DEFCON potential and the chance of clean sheets improving with easier fixtures. Normally, you’d expect him to score three goals a season — he’s got none so far, but the threat is there, especially in games where Liverpool dominate possession and rack up corners.”

As for Salah, Mark sees the Egyptian as a potential short-term differential.

“He’s probably too pricey overall, but if you want strategic diversity, overpaying might be worth it. His attacking numbers remain elite, even if he’s not as far ahead of the pack as we’re used to. He could be a powerful differential over the next month before AFCON.”

With a Wildcard still in hand, Mark revealed he’s considering both Salah and Van Dijk in his drafts.

“Salah would need some careful planning around Gameweek 15 to manage the AFCON switch, but I’ll be building some drafts with him. Playing it safe doesn’t get you far these days — I’ve been taking a few riskier moves this season, and Salah might just fall into that category.”

Mansfield’s methodical, forward-thinking approach reflects why he’s one of the most consistent FPL managers in the game — always planning several Gameweeks ahead while knowing when to break from the template.

Corey Baker: “Mixed Bag, but Three Viable Picks if Budget Allows”

“Liverpool have been such a mixed bag this season,” said Corey Baker, another Elite XI veteran with five Top 10k finishes. “It’s tough to know which players are genuinely viable FPL assets right now.”

Still, Corey believes three names stand out — provided you have the budget.

“Salahis still valuable, just not at that price. His recent uptick in form puts him comfortably in the top five midfielders for underlying non-penalty threat over the past six matches. He’s still on pens, still playing almost every minute, and even took left-sided set pieces recently. If you’ve got cash to spare and want a high-ceiling differential, he’s an option.”

The 4× Top 5k finisher also praised Szoboszlai for his versatility and reliability.

“Szoboszlai’s been Liverpool’s best player by some distance. He’s been used in multiple roles — full-back, central mid, attacking mid — but keeps delivering. He’s on set pieces, picks up DEFCON points regularly (fifth among mids per game with 200+ minutes), and is playing every week. His attacking threat isn’t amazing, but he’s a player you can punt on for the right run of fixtures.”

When it comes to defence, Corey agrees with Mark that Van Dijk is the standout.

“Liverpool haven’t looked great at the back, but Van Dijk still ranks third for DEFCON per game behind Senesi and Tuanzebe. He’s a huge set-piece threat, already has two goals in Europe, and you’d expect one to come in the league soon. If you can afford him, he’s probably the best non-Arsenal defender for the next ten weeks.”

Beyond that, Corey’s not interested in the rest of the Liverpool options.

“No one else really offers value. The full-backs are too heavily rotated, Konaté doesn’t justify the price, and while Alisson’s return helps, he’s too expensive compared to other keepers.”

The Liverpool Verdict: Potential, But Still a Gamble

Liverpool’s fixtures look great, but investment remains risky.

Defence: Van Dijk (£5.9m) is the only secure route — strong DEFCON potential, set-piece threat, and nailed minutes make him a solid pick, though Arsenal defenders still feel safer.

Attack: Salah (£14.2m) has shown signs of life and could be a short-term differential before AFCON, but his price makes him tough to justify without the armband.

Midfield value: Szoboszlai (£6.6m) is the most dependable mid-priced option — steady minutes, set pieces, and multiple scoring routes.

As our Elite XI: Team Reveal managers noted, there’s upside here — but Liverpool need to find consistency fast. For now, this feels like a wait-and-see team rather than one to go all-in on.

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