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FPL Gameweek 11: Who to Target?

Fantasy Football Fix 5 Nov. 2024

Who To Target for Fantasy Premier League 2024/25 Gameweek 11?

Dive into our weekly analysis where we spotlight the top performers from the previous Gameweek, examine the latest FPL transfer trends, and reveal the must-have players to consider for your lineup this week.

Stay ahead of the competition in your Fantasy Premier League journey with our expert insights and strategic tips designed to boost your success!

Expected FPL Points Review - A Look at the Stats

As the below image shows, B. Fernandes tops the Custom Stats xFPL table for Gameweek 10 with a score of 13.2. The Portuguese international took three shots in the box, two of which were 'big chances' and also created two 'big chances'.

Fantasy Premier League Stats Gameweek 10

No player took more shots in the box (six) or was afforded more 'big chances' (three) than Haaland, the Norwegian international was afforded three 'big chances' and his xFPL score of 7.8 indicates that his owners were unlucky not to get any FPL returns.

Matheus N was the most creative player with five attempted assists. The Portuguese international played on the wing with the injuries to Man. City's first choice personnel, but created no 'big chances' which meant a low xFPL score of just 3.6.

The Gameweeks' highest point scorer with 16 FPL points, Solanke led the way for shots on target (three) and was second for shots in the box (five). The England international was afforded two 'big chances' and registered an xFPL score of 9.7.

Salah was a popular captaincy option and had decent underlying numbers. The Egyptian international took three shots in the box, one of which was a 'big chance' and attempted two assists, leading to an xFPL score of 7.0.

What is xFPL?

xFPL is calculated primarily using expected goals (xG), assists (xA), which combine as Fantasy Premier League (FPL) involvements (xG + xA = xI), as well as expected clean sheets (xCS). These numbers are a result of underlying statistics (i.e. shot type and location will give a probability of scoring = xG). xFPL is the combination of these statistics and factors in appearance and bonus points to give an overall expected FPL point score.

Early FPL Transfer Activity Analysed - Which Players are FPL managers buying and selling?

As the below image from our Transfer Analytics feature shows, Wood is the most popular transfer in for Gameweek 11 so far with over 250,000 FPL managers bringing him in at the time of writing.

Fantasy Premier Transfer Activity Gameweek 11

Forest kept their fourth clean sheet of the season which has seen Aina's popularity soar on the back of his goal, the fullback has been recruited by nearly 200,000 FPL managers. Salah and Solanke remain popular after their hauls in Gameweek 10, while Mbeumo is the fifth most bought despite a blank against Fulham.

Haaland's fourth blank over the last five Gameweeks has seen over 200,000 FPL managers part ways with the Norwegian international. While the Luis Díaz exodus continues with nearly 200,000 managers getting rid as well. Van de Ven and Eze are also being sold in droves, with the duo injured and expected to miss Gameweek 11.

Top 10 forwards' FPL transfer combos

A look at the Top 10 forward transfer combinations across FPL indicates that the Haaland money is primarily being spread across budget forwards with Cunha, Wood, Strand Larsen, Wissa and Welbeck the beneficiaries. Calvert-Lewin is also being sold for the Wolves forwards.

In midfield, Salah accounts for eight of the top 10 transfer combinations with Foden, Rogers, McNeil, Saka and Luis Diaz making way. Semenyo and B. Fernandes are the other two popular acquisitions.

In defence, cheap defenders are popular with Aït-Nouri, Aina and Hall being brought in for Van de Ven, Lewis, Gabriel and Alexander-Arnold.

Cunha vs Larsen - Spend the extra on Cunha?

Fantasy Premier League Points Comparison Cunha vs Larsen

As the above image from our Opta Player Heatmaps feature shows, Cunha has outscored Larsen by just four FPL points over the season and the latter has actually played more minutes (829) than the Brazilian international (799).

Fantasy Premier League Stats Comparison Cunha vs Larsen

As the above image shows, both forwards have found the back of the net four times and have identical 'Expected Goals' (xG) (2.43) numbers. However, it is worth mentioning that although Cunha is significantly ahead for both shots (30 vs 14) and shots in the box (21 vs 14), he has landed the same number of shots on target as Larsen (10) which indicates that the chances the cheaper forward is getting are of better quality.

In terms of creativity, Cunha is significantly ahead with 18 attempted assists compared to just seven for Larsen. He has also created more 'big chances' (seven vs two) and takes most of Wolves' set pieces.

At the time of writing, there is a £1m price difference between Cunha and Larsen and the data indicates that the Brazilian international is worth the extra money but Larsen looks an excellent pick at just £5.6m in his own right.


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