FPL Gameweek 10: Best João Pedro Replacements for Fantasy Premier League Managers

João Pedro has now blanked in five straight Gameweeks — and even more concerning, he’s managed just three shots in that time.

With over 430,000 managers already moving him on and Chelsea up against Spurs away next, it feels like the perfect moment to sell.

Let’s take a look at the best replacements for FPL Gameweek 10 👇

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Who Are FPL Managers Replacing João Pedro With?

According to the Transfer Analytics tool, the most common moves so far have been João Pedro ➜ Mateta (64.8%), Thiago (14.3%), Woltemade (6.5%), and Welbeck (6.1%).

While Kroupi.Jr has caught the eye recently, uncertainty over Evanilson’s return and a difficult fixture away to Man City make him too risky to consider right now.

That leaves four realistic replacement options — Mateta, Thiago, Woltemade, and Welbeck — who we’ll now compare using the tools available on Fantasy Football Fix.

Fix Comparison Matrix: Who Stands Out Statistically?

Using per-game averages from the Fix Comparison Matrix tool to account for different minutes played, all four forwards show promise but in different ways.

None have provided an assist yet, and their expected assist (xA) numbers are minimal, meaning goals are the primary source of FPL points.

• Mateta leads for both xG, shots and shots on target per game, suggesting a steady stream of chances.
  
• Thiago has been clinical in front of goal, averaging 0.7 goals per game — the joint-highest among the players compared.
  
• Woltemade has been impressively efficient, scoring four goals from just four shots on target so far, averaging 0.7 goals per game.
  
• Welbeck, meanwhile, doesn’t fare as well statistically — ranking bottom in every metric except shots on target, where he sits second from last.

FPL Fixture Difficulty Rating: Who Has the Better Run?

Fixture analysis via the FDR tool shows that:

Crystal Palace (Mateta) rank top for attacking fixtures, with Brentford, Brighton, and Man United all to come at home, plus an away trip to Wolves — one of only three teams (alongside Forest and Brighton) yet to keep a clean sheet this season. Wolves have also conceded 19 goals, the second-most in the league behind only West Ham (20).

Brentford (Thiago) have a mixed run of fixtures, ranking 10th for attacking difficulty — but things improve quickly. Palace (9 goals conceded) and Newcastle (8 goals) have both been solid defensively, with the Magpies boasting the second-most clean sheets (5) in the league. However, upcoming meetings with Brighton and Burnley look far more appealing, with the Clarets recording the highest expected goals conceded (19.69) in the division.

Brighton (Welbeck) rank fifth for attacking potential and have a favourable four-Gameweek run ahead. They face newly promoted Leeds, who are yet to keep a clean sheet away from home and are conceding an average of 2.25 goals per away match — the third-worst record in the league. The Forest fixture might previously have looked appealing, but with Sean Dyche now in charge, it remains to be seen whether they’ll tighten up defensively.

Newcastle (Woltemade) face West Ham away next, and even under new manager Nuno Espírito Santo, the Hammers continue to struggle defensively. They’ve conceded a league-high 20 goals, with their only clean sheet coming against Forest — when Nuno was still in charge there. However, Newcastle have the toughest upcoming fixtures of the group, including a clash with Man City, and with Gordon on penalties when both are on the pitch, Woltemade looks the riskiest pick among the four.

Predicted Points: What the FPL Algorithm Says

The Predicted Points & Stats tool also leans in Mateta’s favour, projecting him to outscore the others over the next four Gameweeks.

Welbeck and Thiago follow closely as strong mid-priced options, while Woltemade lags behind due to fixture difficulty.

Conclusion: Who Is the Best João Pedro Replacement?

After comparing the underlying data, fixtures, and predicted points:

• ❌ Woltemade looks the weakest option due to a tough fixture run and the fact he’s not on penalties.
• 🦅 Mateta emerges as the standout replacement — his strong underlying numbers, penalty duties, and excellent fixture schedule make him the best pick if your budget allows, as he’s priced higher than João Pedro.
• 📊 Thiago’s stats suggest he’s a slightly better option than Welbeck in terms of goal threat and efficiency, but the Predicted Points model favours Welbeck thanks to Brighton’s more favourable fixtures.

If you’re selling João Pedro this week, Mateta should be your first-choice replacement if you can stretch the budget, with Welbeck and Thiago both strong cheaper alternatives.

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