FPL Forwards Predicted Points

The Editor 26 July 2023

In this blog the top Fantasy Premier League (FPL) forwards' projections are compared, and analysed, for the first six Gameweeks. Is Haaland essential? Find out here.

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As the above image from our Fix Algorithm feature shows, only six forwards are currently projected to score over 20 points over the first six Gameweeks. This means the pool of good FPL options up top is quite limited this season. To put that in context, 18 midfielders are currently projected to score over 20 points over the aforementioned period.

Haaland is the top projected FPL asset across all positions (38.8), with Kane (33.0) in third behind Salah (36.5). Jesus (29.5) is third amongst forwards and is the second most popular forward option with 32% ownership at the time of writing. Watkins (24.0), Gakpo (22.8) and Wissa (21.6) are projected to score significantly lower than the aforementioned trio. The Brentford man's £6.0m price tag is particularly appealing with similar priced forwards, Welbeck (10.0) and Ferguson (15.5), projected to score significantly less.

Jesus vs Watkins

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As the above image from our Fix Heatmaps feature shows, Jesus missed a large chunk of the campaign through injury and played approximately 1000 mins fewer than Watkins. As a result, the latter scored 175 points versus the former's 125. However, it is worth noting that Jesus averaged a marginally higher FPL points per game (4.8 vs 4.7), and with a full preseason behind him he should be fit to hit the ground running.

A look at the Average Statistics per 90 above, shows that Jesus beats Watkins in every attacking metric including 'Expected Goals' (xG) (0.61 vs 0.45), shots (3.47 vs 2.47) and shots in the box (SiB) (3.29 vs 2.32). The Brazilian international has more routes to points with better creativity numbers as well, he beats Watkins for attempted assists (1.26 vs 0.86) and 'big chances' created (0.26 vs 0.11). Of the two options, Jesus appears to be far superior.

Which forwards have the best Fixtures?

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Chelsea are top of our Fixture Analyser for the first six Gameweeks and Nkunku is worth considering, despite his low projections (15.9). Man. City's excellent run of fixtures once again emphasises the importance of Haaland in FPL squads. Brighton and Brentford also have good fixtures with four home games in the first six Gameweeks, the budget trio of Welbeck, Ferguson and Wissa should be on FPL managers' radars. Arsenal have a great fixture run, which once again gives Jesus the edge over Watkins.