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FPL Fixture Analysis (Gameweek 12 onwards)

18 Nov. 2023

With the season’s third international break in full swing, we take the opportunity to get a high-level view of the upcoming schedule, including a confirmed blank Gameweek, and the possibility of a double.

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Whether you are interested in making short-term gains, or prefer longer-term planning, this article has got you covered.

Short-term (4 Gameweeks)

Gameweeks 13-16

Good fixtures 13-16

We are about to enter a tricky period of the FPL schedule, whereby three out of four of the teams with the best fixtures, are in the bottom four of the Premier League table. Of those four, it is probably only Brentford assets who we should be focusing on in the coming weeks.

Using the Opta Stats Sandbox to filter players from just Sheffield United, Burnley, Fulham and Brentford, we quickly see that the top 8 players in terms of xFPL points so far this season are mostly from Brentford (two are from Fulham). A country mile ahead of his teammates is Bryan Mbeumo (£6.8m). If you are targeting the fixtures, then he needs to be on your priority list – although it may be worth getting the Arsenal fixture out of the way first!

Bad fixtures 13-16

To make matters even more difficult, many highly owned FPL assets play for teams which are about to endure a tough run of fixtures in the short term. Newcastle, Tottenham, and Aston Villa are all ranked in the bottom six in terms of attacking fixture difficulty. Things are particularly bad for Chelsea who are ranked bottom – this is a shame because, in terms of performances, it is really starting to feel like Chelsea are turning a corner, and players like Cole Palmer (£5.2m) and Raheem Sterling (£6.9m) could offer tremendous value.

Medium-term (6 Gameweeks)

Gameweeks 13-18

Good fixtures 13-18

Expanding our horizon to the medium-term, we still encounter some of the same problems, in that the teams with the best fixtures, tend to have the least explosive FPL players.

Of particular note, West Ham and Bournemouth are ranked 5th and 6th by our Fixture Planner when looking at this time frame. Players such as Jarrod Bowen (£7.7m) and Dominic Solanke (£6.4m) have been a reliable source of points (despite facing difficult opposition) – if ever there was a good time to jump onto these players, it is now. What helps is they both have great Gameweek 12 fixtures (Burnley and Sheffield United, respectively).

Bad fixtures 13-18

One of the more complicated aspects of medium-term planning is the fact both Brentford and Manchester City have a confirmed blank in Gameweek 18. This means that the short-term gains of bringing in Brentford assets (as mentioned above) will be offset by the medium-term impact of a blank Gameweek.

In addition to the above, it is also worth noting that teams such as Arsenal and Liverpool enter the conversation when we look at this fixture timeframe. Liverpool in particular are about to embark on a tough run, facing Manchester City (away), Manchester United and Arsenal in the next six.

Long-term (8 Gameweeks)

Gameweeks 13-20

Good fixtures 13-20

For those looking at the longer-term – for instance, anyone who is about to play their Wildcard – we can look as far ahead as Gameweek 20, which in itself is a Gameweek of particular interest. Many have predicted that it could be the place to where Manchester City and Brentford’s Gameweek 18 fixture is re-scheduled. Any analysis of the schedule must be made with the above in mind because the Fixture Planner will not show this possibility, as it only displays confirmed changes to the calendar.

One major take home from this is that despite what may be happening in the short or medium term, Aston Villa assets may be a good long-term hold. Planning ahead mustn’t be done without short-term analysis, and so we wouldn’t recommend sticking with a Villa triple-up as they embark on their tough run, however, high-value assets such as Ollie Watkins (£8.4m) could be ones to keep hold off.

Bad fixtures 13-20

Manchester United and Brentford occupy the bottom of the table as their prospects are degraded due to their blank. As above, we must make adjustments for the very real possibility of a double in Gameweek 20.

Beyond this, it is clear that Manchester United, Everton, Luton, Liverpool, and Arsenal have the toughest run. With that said, the very best assets – such as Mohamed Salah (£13.0m), Erling Haaland (£14.0m), and Bukayo Saka (£8.6m) will be more impervious to this difficult run than others.

By Matt Whelan


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