Since my last article, the Gameweek’s have been coming thick and fast. Bernardo Silva is now the greatest player that ever lived according to many, Divock Origi is scoring match winners again, Tottenham and Burnley will have a double GW to play in the future, and West Ham United are still absolutely massive! After 3 big weeks of action, there are a lot of burning questions to be discussed and analysed:

• Is Bernardo Silva the obvious Manchester City attacking option?
• Is Jarrod Bowen the best budget midfielder in FPL?
• Is Raphinha fixture-proof?
• Is Ronaldo the only viable United asset?
• Is Mason Mount a massively underrated FPL asset?

Is Bernardo Silva the obvious Manchester City attacking option?

Bernardo Silva has had two price rises so far this week.

Portuguese midfield maestro Bernardo Silva is now the 2nd top scoring midfielder in FPL, behind only Mo Salah. In the past month, City have a total of 5 wins from 5 games, with Bernardo Silva scoring 5 goals and amassing a total of 43 points in the process. Pep Guardiola has made some big comments in the past weeks too, claiming that Silva is the best player in the league and that he’s also, “Perfect.” These comments would lead you to believe that the attacking midfielder is simply un-droppable. When a City attacking asset is likely to play the majority of minutes, that’s half the battle won in FPL! Making sure you own a player that is on the pitch when City steam roll another team is the main aim.

Bernardo has an xGI of 7.11 this season, edging out the likes of Gundogan with 6.86 and Phil Foden with 5.79, he has played 350 & 500 minutes more than both respectively. Of Manchester City midfielders with over 400 minutes played this season, Bernardo is 6th for xG90 and 7th for xA90 with 0.23. However, based on the consistency of his minutes, having played 1209 of a possible 1350, he has by far the highest xFPL total with 76.14, compared to Ilkay Gundogan’s 62.8, or Jack Grealish’s 49.74.

Minutes played/xFPL involvements for City midfielders using Custom Stats Builder

The likes of Foden, Gundogan, De Bruyne or Mahrez could all outscore Bernardo Silva over the next 5 Gameweek’s if they were given the chance to play the majority of minutes. However, choosing that asset is the issue. If you fancy a gamble, I tip my hat to you! But for me, it is a fact that Bernardo Silva is the obvious Manchester City option, as he nails you a shot at winning the raffle. You could pay £11.8m for a player like De Bruyne to only see him benched in 3 of the next 6 games. It’s just not worth the hassle in my opinion.

Is Jarrod Bowen the best budget midfielder in FPL?

Bowen is proving popular with his favouarble fixtures

West Ham’s tricky winger has been in fine form in 2021/22. He has turned his excellent performances into goals and assists, which is potentially something that was slightly lacking from him in previous seasons. Bowen is one of only 6 players with 10+ goals and assists in the Premier League so far, and of these 6 only he and Dennis at Watford are priced below £7m.

xG stats for midfielders priced under £7m using Opta Stats Sandbox

I think it is fair to judge Bowen to players around his price bracket, as opposed to the likes of Salah, Son, and Foden. So my analysis is of £7m or less midfielders so far in the 2021/22 season. In this bracket Jarrod Bowen has the highest xG (4.53), the most shots on target (15), the most FPL assists (7), the 2nd highest xFPL (66.43), and the 3rd most shots (36).

The numbers are solid enough and only Connor Gallagher and Raphinha can truly compete with him. However, I worry about the xA value of 1.8, which ranks him 18th among £7m or less midfielders. With 7 FPL assists to his name, these returns are not sustainable at all. If you believe that he can change his fortunes in front of goal and start converting a few more chances, then he looks like a fantastic pick. With an xG of 4.53, goals should come, especially with favourable fixtures in the near future for West Ham that start in GW18 vs Norwich (H) and Southampton (H) the week after.

Due to the fixtures swinging the Hammers way, I am going to say that it is fact that Jarrod Bowen is currently the best value midfielder in FPL.

Is Raphinha fixture-proof?

The Leed's talisman has some difficult fixtures to contend with.

Leeds currently sit 15th following a successful return to the Premier League in 2020 after a 16 year absence, in which they finished 9th and only 8 points off the Champions League places. Their 2nd season back in the big time has been plagued by injuries to the likes of Kalvin Phillips, Patrick Bamford, Luke Ayling, and the majority of their centre-halves. Raphinha has so far been a bright spark in what is looking like a season to forget for the Yorkshire outfit, having scored 6 and assisted 1 in 13 games.

It’s a case of Sod’s Law for Leeds in the coming weeks. Luke Ayling and Patrick Bamford have just returned from injury (combining for their 90th minute equaliser vs Brentford in GW15) just in time for one of the worst 4 game run you are ever going to see in the Premier League. Leeds face the current top 3 away from home between Gameweek 16-19, and their “easy” fixture is against an Arsenal side who are currently 7th.

Leeds Gameweek 16-19 fixtures using Fixture Analyser

I personally own Raphinha and have been pleasantly surprised by his consistent returns on a weekly basis. This makes my decision on whether to sell him or not incredibly difficult, as I know that I will want to own him again in a matter of weeks. My general rule of thumb in FPL is to follow players with strong fixtures. As we have just discussed, Jarrod Bowen should be an obvious transfer as he’s around the same price and has strong fixtures.

That being said, Leeds had the 4th highest xG in the league last season vs the so-called 'Top Six', scoring 15 goals in 12 fixtures, which was the 5th highest total in the division. In those 4 fixtures last season, Leeds managed a very respectable 4 points, scoring 6 and conceding 8. Raphinha also managed 4 FPL returns in 12 games vs the 'Top Six' last season (33%), compared to 12 in 26 games vs the rest of the teams in the league (46%), so there is a clear downturn. I would therefore say that it is fixtion that he is fixture-proof. However, if you have other fires in your team with the potential Covid outbreak at Spurs or with Ivan Toney out, then Raphinha could easily get you a cheeky 5 pointer off the bench if needed.

Is Ronaldo the only viable United asset?

Will you be bringing in Ronaldo for his favourable fixtures?

United won their opening game under Ralf Rangnick 1-0 vs Crystal Palace in Gameweek 15. This was the start of a 13 fixture run that will see them face none of the Top Six clubs that spans as far as March. United have been a no-go so far in FPL this season. They currently only have 2 players owned by more than 1% of the top 100k of managers: Ronaldo has an EO of 14.8%, and David De Gea sits at 2.9%. At the start of the season it would have been unimaginable to many, that the likes of Luke Shaw and Bruno Fernandes would be owned by less than 1% of the top 100k managers due to their fine form last season that saw United finish 2nd.

Manchester United ownership in the Top 100k using Insight Live

Firstly, let’s discuss why Ronaldo is a fantastic option for this run of games, outside of the obvious reasoning that he’s one of the greatest athletes that’s ever lived. In terms of xG90 (Players with over 500 minutes), CR7’s 0.64 puts him 3rd behind Jota (0.69) and Mo Salah (0.67). He has also taken the most shots per 90 with a total of 4.13, ahead of Salah, Greenwood and Jota. He is 2nd for shots on target per 90, 1st for shots in the box, and 4th for big chances. Even at £12.3m, given the run of games coming his way, he is an elite level finisher who is getting a vast number of chances in very good areas. It’s time to jump on, no questions asked!

So, who else can we go for? Bruno is putting up solid numbers as he always does. He has chipped in with 5 goals and 3 assists so far this season, from an xG of 3.06 and an xA of 4.34. For £11.6m those numbers just aren’t good enough, with the likes of Bowen, Gallagher, Gundogan, Raphinha, and Mount offering just as much for almost half the price in some cases. In defence, it’s tough as United have just 3 clean sheets all season and have the 4th highest xGA. So, any purchase would be a punt based on the fixtures, David De Gea at £5m looks good value and actually has the 3rd highest xFPL points at United behind Ronaldo and Bruno. Despite their poor form, under new management I would expect at least 5 clean sheets in this run of 12 games, so the value should be there for the Spaniard. The same can also be said for Diogo Dalot at £4.4m if he can nail down his spot over Aaron Wan-Bissaka. The Portuguese full back scored 8 points at home vs Palace in Rangnick’s first fixture earning the plaudits of many United fans on social media. The most exciting punts available to us are that of Marcus Rashford and Jadon Sancho. With the former playing alongside Cristiano Ronaldo up front, he’s a wait and see, but certainly on the watchlist.

Ronaldo being the only viable United asset is clearly fixtion. Ronaldo is by far the best United option, but by no means the only option! Under new management with these fixtures, I wouldn’t be surprised to see triple-ups coming soon for many top managers.

Is Mason Mount a massively underrated FPL asset?

Is Mount underappreciated by FPL managers?

I’ll be honest, if you’d asked for my opinions on Mason Mount at around 2pm on Saturday I would have given a very different answer… But, the midfielder oozes class. His finish vs West Ham at the weekend was sublime and his dead ball delivery is as good as anyone in the league. Very few top managers own Chelsea attacking assets at the moment, and Mount is the highest owned at 3.4% in the top 100k. With Lukaku and Mount back to full fitness, maybe it’s time for Mase?

As I discussed earlier, Bernardo Silva is the talk of the town. He has had over 500k transfers in and is the go-to FPL asset this week. For the same price, however, you have an asset that takes set pieces and is dominant in every attacking metric you can find on the Fix website. Mount’s xGI90 of 0.79 puts him ahead of the likes of Antonio, Ronaldo, and Mane. Compared to all midfielders, Mount has the 2nd best xA90 behind only Phil Foden, the 2nd highest xFPL90 behind only Jota, and the 2nd most big chances created behind Phil Foden too.

Mason Mount vs Bernardo Silva p90 stats using Player Heatmaps

The numbers pretty much speak for themselves on this one. Elite numbers, but 3.4% ownership. This is 100% a fact: Mason Mount is massively underrated, and I think that all comes down to a lack of points last season due to poor finishing from the players around him.

Luke Boarer

@FPLIrons