£7.5m FPL Forward Showdown: Who Should You Pick?

Four Big Names. One Key Decision.

The £7.5m forward price point in Fantasy Premier League 2025/26 offers managers a fascinating choice. Between Chris Wood, João Pedro, Dominic Solanke, and Jean-Philippe Mateta, there’s no clear standout — but each has serious potential.

Selecting the right £7.5m forward could give you a vital early edge.

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🕒 Minutes Played: Who's Most Reliable?

The minutes and games played by all four £7.5m forwards in the 2024/25 season are ranked in the Opta Stats Sandbox.

Chris Wood – Mr. Consistent

Wood clocked 2,977 minutes last season — the highest of this group. His fitness record and nailed-on starting role for Nottingham Forest make him a dependable week-in, week-out option.

Mateta – Reliable Under Glasner

Mateta’s 2,655 minutes for Crystal Palace show that he’s trusted under Oliver Glasner. A solid, regular starter for those wanting consistency.

Solanke – Finding His Feet at Spurs

Solanke played 2,206 minutes in his first season under Ange Postecoglou. Injuries did limit him , but year two could see more starts under Frank.

Pedro – A Risky Bet?

João Pedro managed just 1,953 minutes for Brighton in 2024/25 due to injuries. When fit, he’s explosive — but that remains a major concern, especially with many expecting him to share minutes with Chelsea’s new signing, Delap.

🎯 Goals Scored: Wood Leads the Line

Here’s the goal-scoring data for all four £7.5m forwards from the 2024/25 season, sourced from the Opta Stats Sandbox.

Wood – 20 Goals

The New Zealand international was clinical last season, scoring 20 goals. Penalty duties and excellent positioning make him a major FPL asset.

Mateta – 14 Goals

Impressive aerial threat and chemistry with Eze helped Mateta rack up 14 goals — mostly from open play.

Pedro – 10 Goals and Solanke – 9 Goals

Both were affected by injury or tactical transitions, but their returns suggest that FPL managers opting for them will hope for higher in 2025/26.

📊 Expected Goals (xG): Sustainable Threat?

Mateta: 15.01 xG and Wood: 15.02 xG

Both ranked nearly identically, showing that their output wasn’t a fluke. These numbers suggest they’ll keep delivering.

Solanke: 11.86 xG

He benefited from Tottenham’s attacking play, and his xG underperformance suggests there could be more to come from him in 2025/26.

Pedro: 9.43 xG

Decent numbers considering limited minutes.

🧪 Non-Penalty xG: Who Dangerous from Open Play?

Mateta: 13.49 npxG

There’s only a minimal drop from his overall xG. He scored both of his two penalties in 2024/25. Most of his threat came from open play, which adds to his appeal.

Wood: 12.73 npxG

The New Zealander scored all three of his penalties last season. While spot-kicks boosted his total xG, his non-penalty output remains strong.

Solanke: 11.09 npxG

Solanke had just one penalty for Spurs last season — which he converted. With Son now departed, he’s widely expected to become Tottenham’s first-choice penalty taker in 2025/26.

Pedro: 5.62 npxG

Pedro’s non-penalty xG drops significantly compared to his total xG, as penalties made up a major portion of his returns.

He scored all five he took in 2024/25, but with Palmer likely to remain Chelsea’s primary penalty taker, Pedro may no longer have that advantage.

🎯 Assists & Creativity

Here are the assist and creative stats for all four £7.5m forwards from the 2024/25 season, as shown in the Opta Stats Sandbox.

Pedro: 6 assists / 5.66 xA

The most creative of the group, Pedro often played as a No. 10 for Brighton, dropping deep to link play and create chances — a valuable FPL asset.

However, at Chelsea, he’s expected to play a more traditional No. 9 role, which could mean more goals but fewer assists in 2025/26.

Solanke: 5 assists / 2.54 xA

Thrived in Postecoglou’s fluid attacking setup, often acting as a creator rather than just a finisher.

Notably, he overperformed his expected assists — with only 3 actually awarded, 2 of which counted as FPL assists.

Wood: 3 assists / 2.96 xA

Wood’s assist output closely matched his expected data.

Known primarily for his goalscoring, any assists are simply a bonus for FPL managers.

Mateta: 2 assists / 3.88 xA

Often involved in hold-up play and aerial knockdowns, Mateta was arguably unlucky to underperform his expected assists.

His creative involvement is underrated and could lead to more returns in 2025/26.

📆 Fixtures: First Six Gameweeks

Using the Fixture Planner tool, we’ve rated the opening six Gameweeks by attacking difficulty.

Nottingham Forest come out on top, with Spurs in second. Crystal Palace rank ninth, just ahead of Chelsea in tenth.

Wood (Forest)

A strong start — Forest have the most favourable opening fixtures. Wood is projected to score 27.9 points over the first six Gameweeks.

Solanke (Spurs)

A mixed schedule — Burnley (H) in GW1 offers early promise, but GW2 against Manchester City is tough. Fitness concerns also affect his outlook, and he’s projected 13.5 points across the first six Gameweeks.

Pedro (Chelsea)

Despite a tricky fixture run, the new Chelsea forward ranks second for predicted points with 16.9 — highlighting his explosive potential when fit.

Mateta (Palace)

Challenging fixtures might deter some managers, but Mateta still posts a solid projected total of 16.5 points over the opening six Gameweeks.

Here are the predicted points for all four forwards across the opening six Gameweeks, according to the Predicted Points & Stats tool.

Note: Solanke’s projection is slightly lower than expected due to uncertainty over minutes, as he has yet to feature for Spurs in pre-season.

📈 Ownership: Who Are Managers Backing?

Here’s the current FPL ownership for our four £7.5m forwards, as shown in the Insight Live tool.

Pedro – 52.5%

Currently the most popular of the four, Pedro clearly excites FPL managers with his high ceiling. However, if he sees an early substitution or two, his ownership could drop quickly.

Wood – 16.3%

Surprisingly overlooked given his 20-goal season and Forest’s favourable fixtures. His increased price may be deterring some managers, but the upside remains.

Solanke – 12.9% and Mateta – 12.6%

Both are low-owned differentials with strong potential. If Solanke is confirmed fit to start in Gameweek 1, expect his predicted points — and ownership — to rise sharply.

🧠 Final Thoughts: Which £7.5m Forward Is Best?

There’s no wrong answer — it all depends on your FPL strategy:

• Chris Wood: The safe, reliable pick with good fixtures and penalties.
  
• João Pedro: High-risk, high-reward. Explosive potential.
  
• Dominic Solanke: Has upside in a strong attack but need confirmation of fitness.
  
• Jean-Philippe Mateta: Consistent, creative, and under the radar.
  

Verdict: If you want security — go Wood. If you’re chasing upside — Pedro or Solanke. For all-round balance — Mateta could be your man.

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