5 Jan.

Forwards Analysed

Forwards have been largely inconsistent over the 2021/22 season and in this blog, their numbers are analysed using the Custom Stats Table, a feature that allows you to build a table using only the stats you want, to see if any patterns can be discerned.


As the above image shows, over the last six gameweeks two Palace forwards Ayew (nine) and Edouard (eight) lead the way for chances created. This would indicate that the London side rely a lot on their wingers for creativity and Olise could be a great option while Ayew is away at the African Cup of Nations (AFCON). Lacazette's numbers are also impressive with seven chances created and seven shots on target (SoT). With Aubameyang out of favour and away at AFCON, he is a great pick.


It is generally assumed that players who are overperforming their Expected Goals (xG) will likely regress to the mean over a period of time so it is worth looking at players that have been scoring more than expected. As the above image shows, over the last six gameweeks Lukaku (-1.9) is at the top of the list. Popular option Dennis (-1.3) has also been scoring more than his numbers suggest so managers should perhaps manage their expectations with the Nigerian.


At the other end of the spectrum, players who have been underperforming their xG numbers, have probably had good opportunities but will have been a tad unlucky or let down by poor finishing, which should improve over time. Edouard (1.1) is the biggest underperformer and his ownera have perhaps been unfortunate to only get two goals from the Frenchman so far. Popular option Ronaldo (1.0) should have also scored more given the quality of chances he was afforded.


The above image shows the top five forwards for xFPL in home matches this season. Premium options Ronaldo (49.0), Kane (37.9) and Lukaku (22.8) have posted excellent numbers in home matches and there is a significant difference to their numbers in away matches as the below table shows.


Antonio (52.9) tops the table for xFPL amongst forwards in away matches compared to 42.5 in home matches which is an interesting trend. Players such as Ronaldo (38.9) and Kane (31.9) have performed significantly worse in away matches.