Welcome back to the Fix Differential blog, at what feels like an absolutely crucial time to be looking at those differential picks. With many key FPL assets flagged or doubtful, and many wildcards being activated, most of us are deep in thought about what transfers we would like to make heading into the Gameweek 7 deadline, or looking for that crucial bit of variety in a Gameweek 7 wildcard before the 2 week International Break.
Unfortunately, due to personal circumstances I was unable to get an article together for Gameweek 6 (I would have picked Jose Sa, honest!) so I won’t look back in too much detail at choices from Gameweek 5. My four choices for Gameweek 5 were Jose Sa (0 points), Joao Cancelo (6 points), Sadio Mane (8 points) and Ollie Watkins (2 points). 16 points is one of the better weeks so far, but doesn’t eclipse our top score of 21 points from Gameweek 1. I’m determined to beat that score prior to the International Break - so lets get to it!
Ilian Meslier is currently owned by just 2.9% of FPL managers
Yes, I’m well aware that selecting a Leeds defensive asset on the face of what has happened over the course of the first six gameweeks seems pretty crazy. In fact, Leeds have the highest xGC so far this season with 12.48 - and they’ve conceded 14 goals. However, Meslier is an extremely reliable source of saves. He’s achieved at least 1 save point in 5 of 6 games so far, and hit 6 saves in 2 matches.
That suggests that he will regularly be making save points, so if the clean sheets come with it, the big goalkeeper hauls would be incoming. If that’s going to happen, it’s going to happen in the next four gameweeks.
Leeds upcoming fixtures taken from Fixture Analyser.
As you can see above, Leeds top the fixture ticker for the next four gameweeks - while the general fixture run is strong defensively for a prolonged period. If Leeds do begin to tighten up more, as they did towards the end of last season, then Meslier could be a fantastic option for those looking for a goalkeeper on wildcard. Watford at Elland Road this week could be the place where it starts.
This is the classic fixture of a team coming into a match with great confidence and momentum, off the back of successive clean sheets and victories against a team that appear to be in complete disarray. Aston Villa’s excellent wins against Everton and Man Utd have restored faith in Aston Villa assets, and Matty Cash could be a good way to do that without spending more of your budget on Emi Martinez.
Cash comes out favourably over the first 6 gameweeks against a lot of the other defenders in his price point for statistics - including expected FPL points.
£5m defenders compared using Fix Comparison Matrix
With the struggles that Spurs have faced, Cash is someone who could absolutely secure attacking returns as well as a potential clean sheet. Villa come out 6th for defensive fixtures over the next 6 gameweeks - which also makes him someone that you could potentially hold slightly longer term. A gamble that may be worth taking.
Another man coming up against a team who are undoubtedly struggling in a defensive capacity is Wilfried Zaha. Zaha netted a penalty against Brighton in GW6 - penalties are one of the key strings to his bow, that might make him worth the extra money over Conor Gallagher. It is difficult potentially to make that argument other than an instinct - but Zaha (28.64 xFPL) has roughly matched Gallagher (29.81 xFPL) so far this season. With the higher volume of touches in the final third, the threat of penalties and the higher average position, it's a reasonable belief that Zaha could be the more explosive selection.
A comparison of Zaha and Gallagher using Player Heatmaps
I think both Gallagher and Zaha are great options for the coming weeks - but Zaha’s advanced position and the threat of penalties mean I favour him if budget allows. If not, Gallagher is great - but his appeal potentially dwindles slightly if Luka Milivojevic is in the side and taking over some of the set piece duties.
Could Chris Wood be worth a one week gamble before a Wildcard?
If you’re looking for a one week punt before a Gameweek 8 wildcard, or wanting to attack a fixture before moving a player on, Chris Wood seems like the most obvious asset to punt on. Low ownership and an absolutely plum fixture. It’s one that is easier to justify by looking at the weaknesses of the opposition, more than the strengths of Burnley. Who haven’t had the easiest start to the season. However, Wood could easily have been in a better position. He was denied a penalty by VAR in the home game against Arsenal, as well as having a goal disallowed by VAR at the King Power Stadium in GW6. His 1 goal so far could easily have been 3 - and then we’d be looking at him in a very different way.
Chris Wood statistics taken from Opta Stats Sandbox
In the defence of Norwich, they’ve also had tough fixtures - but have an xGC of 12.26 and managed to underperform against that, conceding 16 goals in 6 games. As for Wood, his numbers considering Burnley’s fixtures were tough from an attacking perspective. The fixtures for Burnley have them ranked 14th for attack on the Fix ticker for GWs 1-6.
Burnley's fixtures GW1 to GW6 from the Fixture Analyser
Looking ahead, Burnley rank 3rd for attacking fixtures over the next 4 gameweeks - with Manchester City posing an obvious problem, but Norwich, Southampton and Brentford as the other 3 fixtures. Wood feels like the obvious potential talisman - and it’s also reassuring that his only goal so far this season also led to 3 bonus points. I think that’s likely to be the case in a lot of Burnley fixtures.
Burnley's fixtures GW7 to GW10 using the Fixture Analyser
Good luck to you if you are wildcarding, or if you are taking some late punts before an upcoming wildcard. As I found this week with my ownership of Jose Sa, those differential picks can be the difference between an average week and a great week, so I hope you choose correctly.
Rob Pick
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