The return from the International Break was another good week for the majority of the twitter community within FPL - less of a good week for the differential blog with our first no-show. How was I supposed to know that Aaron Ramsdale would randomly take the place of Bernd Leno and complete Arsenal’s first clean sheet of the season? Bad luck if you ask me. Rumours are that Leno may well be straight back in for this weekend to compound the bad luck. But lets take a quick look back at how the Gameweek 4 selections did, before I talk you through my selections for Gameweek 5. Ultimately, I’m supremely confident that Gameweek 5 will be the week where I roar back into form!

As already highlighted, Bernd Leno was rotated by Mikel Arteta for Arsenal’s 1-0 win over Norwich. I feel fairly confident from the way the game panned out that I would have been looking at a 6 point return. Norwich’s xG of 0.61 suggests I’d have been looking at a good chance of points there, but there’s very little to review or analyse considering my selection didn’t even make the pitch! Defensively, Antonio Rudiger did return his 3^rd 6 pointer in the last 4 gameweeks, although it was done with considerably more danger than I would have anticipated. Chelsea’s rotated team ahead of their Champions League tie with Zenit saw them give up far more chances than we had become accustomed to with Aston Villa returning an xG in the game of 1.09 and goalkeeper Edouard Mendy forced into making 6 saves. But Rudiger delivered what we come to expect from him. Chelsea move into what looks on paper to be a slightly trickier 2 fixtures, but with Spurs barely having a shot on target in recent games, I’d expect Rudiger’s form to continue.

Bernd Leno - the first no show differential. 

I had expected an open and close game between Leeds and Liverpool which led me towards the selection of Jack Harrison as my midfield differential, but as it happened, Liverpool were by far the better team as Leeds continue to stutter in the early stages of the season. The best that Harrison could muster were 3 attempted assists from an xA of 0.20, but he offered no goal threat before being replaced. He’s a player that I think will look like increasingly good value as we approach this good fixture run for Leeds, with his price dropping to a bargain at under 6m.

The final pick was Raul Jimenez who continues to disappoint his owners and those that back his underlying statistics! This time, his stats didn’t quite measure up with only 1 shot (xG of 0.19) in the game, and 2 attempted assists with an xA of 0.33. Jimenez will absolutely get returns this season - the problem is that his ownership might be at 0% by the time he does.

So that was a total of 10 points in Gameweek 4…I’m not a happy bunny, and its time to pull out some big gun differentials for Gameweek 5, so here we go!

Goalkeeper: Jose Sa Ownership: 2.0% Fixture: Brentford H

We seem to be spoilt for options across the goalkeeper position this season. While the 6.0m goalkeepers are excelling, and many won’t go there, a lot of people are sticking with the 4.5m's who haven't quite delivered what would be hoped for yet. My instinct is that a 5m goalkeeper might end up being the best value option this season, and Jose Sa seems to me to be the man to target during this fixture run. Sa looked to be on for a haul in the fixture against Watford, with 2 early saves, but Wolves then tightened up and no more saves were made, meaning Sa was limited to a 6 point return. Wolves have a wonderful fixture run, and I have run a comparison to compare Sa with 2 4.5m goalkeepers and 2 6m options to see who looks like coming the best value option.

Goalkeeper comparison using Fix Comparison Matrix 

Sa is projected to score 21.1 points over the next 5 gameweeks, narrowly beaten by Ederson (21.5) and Alisson (22), but ahead of Sanchez and Bachmann as the go-to 4.5m goalkeepers. Looking back at the previous gameweeks, his xGC of 3 is lower than all other options apart from Ederson, and Wolves do have wonderful fixtures coming up. The home game with Brentford - who haven't been free-scoring, could be another clean sheet opportunity and a clean sheet here would push Sa right to the top of the tree amongst the 5m and under goalkeepers. I think he’s a great option this week and he’s my goalkeeper of choice - in my squad, and in the differential blog!

Defender: Joao Cancelo Ownership: 8.6% Fixture: Southampton H

The only fear here is rotation - but Joao Cancelo has been bulletproof so far this season, playing 360 minutes and performing extremely well as the attacking full back we know he is. It’s always difficult to look at attacking full backs without comparing them to Trent Alexander-Arnold, which is practically impossible to compete with. But when removing Trent from the equation, Cancelo begins to stand out amongst the other premium defensive options. He has the highest touches in the box (13) amongst the defenders I chose to compare with around his price point, has created 1 big chance but also has 28 xFPL from the 4 games so far beating Robertson, Dias, Alonso and Digne comfortably.

Defender comparison using Fix Comparison Matrix

If Cancelo starts, Man City look like the most viable defence for a clean sheet this week against Southampton and I’d expect the chances of another double digit return for the Portuguese full back. Cancelo is also usually an excellent source of bonus points and picked up 3 in the fixture against Leicester in Gameweek 4.

Sadio Mane Ownership: 2.7% Crystal Palace H

Truthfully, I hesitated over this selection but that was purely down to my own ownership of Diogo Jota and Mohamed Salah in FPL, and the frustration at Mane wasting multiple chances that the two had created for him. In reality, and looking at the data in the cold light of day, it's difficult not to justify Mane as a fantastic differential for the upcoming couple of gameweeks.

Mane’s numbers at Elland Road were staggering. 10 shots was more than a number of teams managed - his 1 goal came from an xG of 2.07 and an xA of 0.45. Considering his complete lack of interest in passing the ball to other assets, its impressive he managed an xA that high!

Mane shot map taken from Match Stats 

The numbers over the first 4 gameweeks are surprising. Mane leads Salah for shots, xG and shots in the box over the first 4 gameweeks. I’m not advocating the selection of Mane ahead of Salah, but for anyone considering coming off Bruno Fernandes, moving to Sadio Mane for the next 2 weeks before going to Romelu Lukaku in Gameweek 7 could be a fantastic differential to your rank.

Salah vs Mane comparison using the Player Heatmaps function

Ollie Watkins Ownership: 1.6% Everton A

The difference that Ollie Watkins made to the Aston Villa team in the fixture against Chelsea was palpable. Yes, Villa lost the game 3-0, but I’d stretch as far as to say it was their best performance of the season, and the result undoubtedly flattered the team from West London. The energy that Watkins provides to the press for Villa made them an altogether different proposition from the one that had let many owners down in the first 3 gameweeks, and its my belief that Watkins is the key cause of that fundamental shift.

Watkins managed 6 shots against Chelsea, a number that not many will match - and while he didn’t get the better of Edouard Mendy, Everton have shown enough vulnerability - even in the game with Burnley on Monday - to suggest that Watkins chances will come again.

Watkins shot map taken from Match Stats 

An xG of 0.63 from the Villa marksman could easily have brought returns in another week, and I feel Watkins is on the verge of returning to our thoughts as a long term asset. That probably won’t come until around GW8, but the next 3 games (Everton, Spurs, Man Utd) are probably not as bad as they sound on paper given Spurs poor result and performance at Selhurst Park, and Man Utd’s inability so far this season to keep clean sheets. He could be a gamble to take if looking at replacing the injured Dominic Calvert-Lewin and the suspended Michail Antonio.

Whether its transfers, or you’ve been forced into an early wildcard that you are tinkering with,  good luck with all your GW5 decisions! 

Ciao for now. 

Rob Pick

@rpick86