Dave & Joe’s Fantasy Football Mix - GW32

GW 31 was definitely a week where those who gambled on some DGW action profited, Austin in particular scored big against WBA for the second time this season. One of us (Dave doesn’t want to be named) foolishly dropped Özil to his bench for this week where, after a strong showing from both United and Arsenal, the top 4 has been all but finalised, even with City stuttering again.

Thinking of the Summer Holidays

One thing FPL managers know is that the end of the season can throw a few screwballs in as teams start to wind-down/rotate if they have nothing left to play for. Notable examples of the ridiculous end-of-season shenanigans are the 5-5 draw between West Brom and United in 2013, Abou Diaby playing/surviving 17 minutes of actual, real-life football on the final day of 13/14 and if you cast your mind back a number of years, Middlesbrough famously beat City 8-1 (Afonso Alves scored 3!) in Sven-Göran Eriksson’s last game in charge in 2008. This stage of the season is where some teams have already packed their bags for the summer and are looking forward to putting their feet up.

Dave: The most obvious example of a team this season who have already called it a day for this season is Newcastle. This was a decline that started even before Pardew had left. Newcastle were 5th after 12 games and have picked up 16 points in the 19 games since. John Carver has done little to inspire his players, you only need to look at the abject performance against Sunderland last weekend as proof. The rest of this season looks a write-off for Newcastle who will stagger into mid-table obscurity yet again this season. A team with equally little motivation and a history of poor end of season form is Swansea. They are enjoying a good season under Monk, but under Laudrup they seemed to give up for almost a full year after winning the Capital One Cup. They are 7 points behind Southampton and 4 clear of West Ham with effectively nothing but pride at stake between now and the summer. If Monk can continue to motivate Swansea to win then they have nice enough fixtures to hold onto their players, but be wary of them Laudrupping all over again.

Joe: Charlie Adam's 70 yard howitzer at the weekend will possibly go down as the most memorable moment of an up-and-down season for Stoke City which include wins against Man City and Arsenal. While currently in a very respectable 10th position, The Potters are currently on a three-game losing streak and with tough fixtures for the rest of the season, they look like a team to avoid. Level on points with Stoke, and facing them this weekend, are West Ham. Most players will have fond memories of earlier in the season when Stewart Downing bemused fans with a run of superb form and Diafra Sakho scored goals for fun. However, with just two wins since Christmas, The Hammers's season has really tapered off in recent weeks and months and their players should be avoided in the run in.

The Business End - A Familiar 4

Arsenal's 4-1 hammering of Liverpool on Saturday certainly seems to have cemented this year's Top 4 as being Chelsea, City, United and Arsenal.  7 points adrift and with focus perhaps leaning towards the FA Cup, Liverpool now look unlikely to trouble the Champions League places. However, the order in which the quartet will finish is less certain. While the title race seems decided, ever-increasing position-based television money has ensured that teams will still be looking to finish as high as possible - and there are a number of big games in the coming weeks that will go a long way in deciding the finishing positions of the Top 4. GW32 sees United face City, GW33 features Chelsea against United and as part of their DGW34 the Blues will play Arsenal.

Dave: My beloved Arsenal are obviously the form team at the minute and now the bookies favourites to finish 2nd. They dismantled Liverpool last weekend with Giroud scoring yet again. Özil has scored 10+ points in 4 of his 8 games since returning from injury including last weekend (I don’t wanna talk about it). They do have a blank in GW33 followed by Chelsea in GW34 so it does offer a chance to cash in on their players before restoring them to your team for the final chapter of the run-in (which also features a DGW in week 37). Meanwhile, City continue to confuse and annoy FPL managers after another loss. 5/7 of their remaining games are against top half sides. Dzeko and Aguero are struggling for goals so I wouldn’t be surprised to see Bony back in when he’s fit. I can’t believe I’m saying it but Bony would actually provide some youth to the City team at the age of 26. The starting XI against Palace had two outfield players under the age of 29, one of which turns 29 this week. Bony could inject some energy and power up front between now and the end of the season which could help City challenge for 2nd.

Joe: After nearly 2 years and £200million, United finally seem to be showing some semblance of their 2012/13 title-winning form. While their next few fixtures (City - H, Chelsea - A, Everton - A) aren't the most inspiring, in Rooney and Mata they offer some quality attacking options to help teams through the barren GW33. Phil Jones at 5.1 million also offers a decent defensive option and is good for the occasional goal/bonus point/inaccurate corner. In the interests of full disclosure I must say that I am a filthy Chelsea fan. After an explosive start to the season, the soon-to-be champions have been chugging along solidly if not spectacularly. Once the title is confirmed be wary of Chelsea making use of rotation. Until then, The Blues offer some serious points potential. While most, if not all, will have Hazard, Cesc Fabregas offers a nice differential for those who wish to take a gamble on him rediscovering his early season form. The injury to Diego Costa's knackered hamstring now also means that Loïc Rémy is a real option.

Agüer-woe

Monday saw City slump to yet another defeat. Last years champions have now won just 5 of their 12 Premier League games in 2015 and Agüero is feeling this slump more than most and it is now over 500 minutes since the Argentinian has scored in the league. Alas, we now feel that it is time to part company with Agüero.

Dave: I’m gonna look at 3 somewhat risky replacements for Agüero. All of these would free up considerable funds to be spent elsewhere.

• Bafetimbi Gomis (6.5m): Fresh off two goals last weekend, he has an ownership of 0.6% overall, which is criminally low. He is virtually guaranteed to start in Bony’s absence. He has relatively good fixtures until GW36. As mentioned above, if Swansea do keep battling, his goals will surely be one of the key factors.

• Wilfried Bony (8.2m): City should turn their poor form around, if Agüero can’t do that himself I expect Bony to nick a few between now and the end of the season. As i mentioned earlier, there is a question over his fitness at the minute so keep an eye on that. They missed a physical presence up front against Palace and Dzeko was taken off while they were chasing the game which says a lot about Pellegrini’s confidence in the big Bosnian.

• Saido Berahino (5.6m): A man in my team for the last 6 weeks. He’s formed a good partnership with Ideye, fixtures aren’t great but he can do a job as a cheap third choice striker that’ll allow you to beef up your midfield. He has 3 good chances at decent hauls by the end of the season and pair that with being West Brom’s most likely source of a goal against the bigger teams in the other games and he becomes a decent punt.

Joe: My Aguero replacements are slightly more traditional in comparison to Differential Dave

• Wayne Rooney (10.7m): With 4 goals in his last 5 games, Rooney is the most obvious big budget replacement for Agüero. While he has tough fixtures, Rooney's clear chance conversion percentage is the highest in the league and the United captain rarely needs a second chance to get his name on the scoresheet.

• Loïc Rémy (7.1m): My own personal Costa replacement. The Frenchman has had to be content with a season spent mainly on the bench however still has a very respectable Goals-per-Minute ration of 1 goal every 129 minutes As I have mentioned above, a swap to Rémy is a short term move as one can expect Mourinho to give some game-time to Didier Drogba once the title is wrapped up.

• Romelu Lukaku (8.8m): A highly frustrating player in FPL terms it is Lukaku's situation at Everton which intrigues me most. Currently, along with many others, the Belgian youngster is pining for a move away from the underperforming Toffees. This could manifest itself in his performances as he looks to impress potential suitors.