Ronaldo is back, Lukaku is fit and firing, Antonio is suspended and Calvert-Lewin is injured… GW5 is going to be a tough week to plan for. There are so many questions and musings going around, I am excited to get started on the 5 key topics for this week! 

-         It’s time to sell Antonio?

-         Ronaldo is “Essential”?

-         Time to invest in Crystal Palace?

-         Demarai Gray is overperforming?

-         Harry Kane is not an option in FPL this season with Spurs?

It’s time to sell Antonio?

Following an electric start scoring 4 and assisting 4 in only 3 games, 55% owned Michail Antonio was sent off for a 2^nd yellow card vs Southampton, which will result in a 1 match suspension vs Manchester United at home. The question that many are weighing up, given that Antonio plays Leeds (A) and Brentford (H) in GW6/7 is he really worth one of our precious transfers? And, even more importantly, is there anybody worth removing him for? Especially given the injury to Dominic Calvert-Lewin who has also been putting up some very solid numbers. 

Projected points for Forwards (£6m-£8.5m) using Projected Points & Stats

Only one forward priced below £8.5m is predicted to outscore Antonio across the next 5 GW’s despite the Jamaican missing GW5 vs United. This is unsurprising of course, given that Antonio has already managed 8 returns in 4 fixtures, nobody else in that bracket comes close. However, Leeds do have a favourable run coming, which could see Patrick Bamford come good; NEW (A), WHU (H), WAT (H), SOU (A), WOL (H). This decision of course becomes even murkier when we consider that a lot of Antonio owners will also own Calvert-Lewin, and might have injuries/non-playing players such as Webster or Tsimikas. 

Leeds have looked poor so far this season, in particular against Liverpool at home in GW4, but that is of course to be expected. Leeds had the 7^th best xG in the league last season, scoring the 6^th most goals. Patrick Bamford also had the 4^th highest xG of any player in the league with a value of 16.6 and is being gifted chances by the 7^th most creative player in the league, in Raphinha, who had an xA of 7.59 last season.

In my opinion, a simple move from Antonio to Bamford is worthwhile. But, if you do have the money or ability to change up your formation, from a 343 to 442, for one week using the likes of Ayling vs Newcastle (A) or Ben White vs Burnley (A) would be beneficial as Antonio could go ballistic vs Leeds in GW6. Overall, I am going to say that it is fiction that we NEED to sell. It could be beneficial for some, but not for the vast majority of teams. 

Ronaldo is “Essential”?

I’m not sure that any player is ever “essential”, and it’s an incredibly overused word in the world of FPL, but a player with 905 goals & assists in 896 club games is as close to essential as you are ever going to find. The stat that astounded me the most after Ronaldo’s 2^nd debut for United, was the fact that he already has the highest xG for the club in the Premier League this season, despite having played 4 times less minutes than players like Greenwood and Fernandes.

Manchester United xG numbers for the 2021/22 season using Opta Stats Sandbox

 These numbers are of course slightly skewed by a goalkeeping mistake that led to a 0.95 xG chance & goal at the weekend. However, this is an intangible ability that xG or any other data model cannot quantify. Ronaldo is a genius at being in the right place at the right time, hence why he has the goal scoring record that he does across a 20 year career. He is going to constantly be in and around the box with creative players like Luke Shaw, Bruno Fernandes and Paul Pogba looking to assist him. As an asset we can’t ask for much more. His performance vs Newcastle was solid, he had an xG of 1.49, from 6 shots, and also attempted 1 assist. Along with Mo Salah & Trent Alexander-Arnold I would say they are as close to essential as you will get.

Time to invest in Crystal Palace?

Crystal Palace performance levels have gone slightly under the radar due to their league position up until their empathic 3-0 win vs Tottenham in GW4. The arrival of Patrick Vieira as manager was initially expected to improve Crystal Palace as an attacking side, however, their defensive numbers are fantastic so far this season. Palace sit 4^th in terms of lowest xG conceded, despite playing Chelsea & West Ham away, along with Spurs at home in their opening 4 fixtures so far. 4 Palace defenders currently rank amongst the top 10 £4.5m (or less) defenders for xFPL points, with Marc Guehi coming out on top with 17.88 expected points.

Teams sorted by xG using the Opta Sandbox tool. 

The attacking assets for Crystal Palace are looking good too, especially Odsonne Edouard who has an xG per 90 of 8.74 and an xFPL per 90 of 94.95, so a 200 point captain is likely in GW5 vs Liverpool. Joking aside, he could potentially be great value at £6.5m, especially after some early goals to improve his confidence. The main threat so far for Palace hasn’t actually been Wilfried Zaha, it has been Chelsea loanee Conor Gallagher, who has amassed an xG of 2.4, with an xA of 0.85 in only 3 fixtures. If he can continue to perform at even half of this level, he will be incredible value across the season at only £5.6m.

The obvious issue with buying Palace assets right now is the fixture list that includes LIV (A), LEI (H), ARS (A) and MCI (A) in their next 6. For that reason, I am going to say that it is fixtion that we need to invest in Palace assets, but they are certainly worth keeping an eye out for and could become serious options later in the season.

Demarai Gray is overperforming?

Demarai Gray has started the season in fine form, scoring 3 goals in his opening 4 games for Everton. With a price of only £5.7m, given that Everton have a favourable run of fixtures coming up, surely Gray is an obvious purchase? Looking at his underlying stats, I am not so sure…

Gray has opened the season with 8 shots, 4 in the box, with 3 on target and a total xG of only 0.86, meaning that he is overperforming by 350% currently. The winger has also only managed an xA of 0.29 too, so his creativity is not going to make up for a lack of goal scoring once his purple patch is over.

Gray has scored 3 of his 4 shots within the box, with an xG of 0.43, 0.13 and 0.07 respectively. Across his career, the winger has managed 29 club goals in 272 games, with 26 assists. So it appears to be incredibly unlikely that his current form is even close to sustainable and 10+ goals would be all but impossible. Therefore, I am saying it is clearly a fact that Gray is overperforming.

Demarai Gray shotmap 21/22 using Player Heatmaps

Harry Kane is not an option in FPL this season with Spurs

Harry Kane accumulated 23 goals and 14 assists in 2020/21, so of course saying that he isn’t an option at all sounds ridiculous. However, after disappointment in the summer with his move to Manchester City collapsing, Kane & Spurs do not look the same beast from an attacking perspective. Spurs started their fixtures with Palace at the weekend with a midfield 3 of Skipp, Hojberg and Winks, this does not scream creativity or goals. This is backed up by their creative numbers, Spurs have so far managed to create a league low of one big chance created and the 2^nd least attempted assists. In 180 minutes of football so far this season, Harry Kane has managed 1 shot, 0.1 xG and 0.24 xA, that is seriously worrying, not only for Kane, but also for Spurs as a team.

Harry Kane is a world class footballer that often has to score and create most of Spurs’ goals, but he simply cannot do everything. With the likes of Ronaldo and Lukaku back in the league now, along with Antonio, Bamford and DCL offering great value when fit, I am not sure we can seriously justify buying Harry Kane at £12.2m until something significantly changes from a tactical perspective at Spurs.

I am of course going to say that it is fiction that Harry Kane isn’t an option, given that he is one of the best players in the league, however, it is one to seriously monitor, I don’t believe that you will be guaranteed points from Harry Kane this season in a good run of fixtures.

Clubs creativity statistics per 90 21/22 using CustomStats Sandbox

Luke Boarer

@FplIrons