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Double Gameweek 29: Leicester & Newcastle

Fantasy Football Fix 24 March 2023

In the third part of our Double Gameweek 29 blogs, we look at assets from Leicester and Newcastle.

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Iheanacho tops the Stats Sandbox for xFPL (24.83) with no Leicester player notching more than his 21 Fantasy Premier League (FPL) points over the last six gameweeks. The Nigeria international has taken 12 shots in the box (SiB) with only Isak (13) faring better in the comparison, while the Leicester man is also top for 'big chances' (four). Maddison (16) has taken more shots than Iheanacho (14) but just three of these attempts have been in the box and his 'Expected Goals' (1.03) tally is significantly worse than the latter's (2.03). The creative numbers are where the midfielder shines with a table-topping 15 attempted assists and 2.02 'Expected Assists' (xA). Barnes has been Leicester's top scorer over the last six gameweeks with two goals and he has landed as many attempts on target as Maddison (four). However, most of his attempts have been in the box (eight) which is encouraging.

Trippier has been Newcastle's most creative player with 11 attempted assists but his xA total of 0.95 shows that these have not been high quality chances. Isak's numbers stand out, the Swedish international is top of the comparison for FPL points (25), xG (2.1) and shots in the box (SiB) (13) despite playing just 339 minutes. Saint-Maximin could see more minutes with the injury to Almiron and the winger has taken seven shots and attempted eight assists over just 316 minutes.

Maddison vs Barnes

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As the above image from our Fix Heatmaps feature shows, Maddison and Barnes have played similar minutes over the last eight gameweeks and the latter has scored five more FPL points at an average of 4.1 per game.

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A look at the underlying numbers above shows that Maddison has taken more shots (19 vs 14), but Barnes is ahead for xG (1.65 vs 1.99) and has landed one more shot on target (five vs six). The fact that he has taken three times the number of SiB as Maddison (four to 12) is telling and indicates that he is more likely to score than the former. Maddison is significantly ahead for creativity (17 attempted assists vs seven) but the xA difference is not that much (2.17 vs 1.36). This is because the chances that Barnes creates are of a high quality, shown by his three 'big chances' created out of a total of seven chances created.

Who has the better fixtures?

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Leicester are ranked second on our Fixture Analyser for the next four gameweeks with the trip to the Etihad the only daunting prospect in the short-term. The Foxes' league position is precarious and they will be targeting these fixtures to put points on the board. Newcastle are ranked eighth, the Magpies play Man. Utd and Spurs at St. James Park and travel to Brentford and Villa as well, two of the form sides in the division. The Foxes do have the better schedule but Newcastle might have a double against Brighton scheduled in either gameweek 30 or 31 which would tilt it in their favour.

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