If you are the sort of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) manager who enjoys going against the grain – or takes satisfaction from finding hidden gems before the crowd – then lowly selected players (differentials) can often provide value and offer a source of points which won’t be shared by many other managers. As long as the player picks are justifiable, differentials can give you an edge over your mini-league rivals.
In this article we shine the spotlight on forwards who are currently selected by less than 10% of managers, but could emerge amongst this season’s top performers.
Jamie Vardy scored 6.63 points per 90 minutes last season - taken from the Opta Stats Sandbox tool
With Gabriel Jesus (£8m) seemingly a must since his move to North London, and over three-quarters of managers opting for either Erling Haaland (£11.5m) or Harry Kane (£11.5m), there is little wiggle room left to consider the third forward spot, especially when such good value can be found in both defence and midfield.
But, for those willing to take a chance, Jamie Vardy (£9.5m) could prove to be an important differential this season. Vardy, who spent much of last season side lined through injury, has incurred a price reduction due to a diminished total points output. But, if we look at his output per 90 minutes, then we can see that he is the second highest performing forward, with only Diogo Jota (£9m) able to better him.
Kai Havertz beat Dominic Calvert-Lewin in most attacking metrics last season - taken from the Opta Player Heatmaps tool
With Romelu Lukaku on his way back to Italy, and Timo Werner (£8m) seemingly out of favour, all signs point to Kai Havertz (£8m) being Chelsea’s number 9 next season.
Reclassified as a forward for the 2022/23 campaign, the German has proved he can operate as the focal point of Chelsea's attack, amassing 5.57 points per 90 minutes last season; this could provide an interesting alternative to the highly owned Jesus.
The Opta Player Heatmaps tool has several modes - this one shows Odsonne Edouard's shot map from last season
Racking up 5 points for every 90 minutes played and costing just £5.5m, Edouard represents one of the best value picks in the game.
Crystal Palace has a very tricky opening run of fixtures, but if the French striker can nail down a first choice spot, he could emerge as a fantastic budget enabler and is one to keep an eye on as the season progresses.
Callum Wilson earned 0.4 xG per 90 minutes last season - taken from the Opta Stats Sandbox tool
Apart from having to play both Manchester City and Liverpool in Gameweeks 3 and 5, Newcastle United has a generous run of opening fixtures, which extends all the way to Gameweek 10.
Finishing well under Eddie Howe in the previous campaign, Newcastle look set to mount a challenge for European football and Callum Wilson (£7.5m) could play an integral part in generating goals for The Magpies. Owned by just over 3% of managers, Wilson could be an exciting option to have in your front line with a tasty Gameweek 1 fixture against Nottingham Forest.
Brentford is ranked 6th for best attacking difficulty in the first seven Gameweeks - taken from the Fixture Planner
Once Brentford has faced Leicester and Manchester United in the first two Gameweeks, their fixtures turn for the better. For this reason alone, it is worth keeping an eye on Ivan Toney (£7m), one of last season’s standout forwards.
A note of caution, Ivan Toney’s attacking numbers increased significantly after the arrival of Christian Eriksen last season. Following the Danish midfielder’s switch to Manchester United, it remains to be seen how this will affect The Bees’ attacking prowess on the field.
Also in this series:
Join 89% of our members who won their main mini-league last season.
TRY IT NOWAlready a Premium user? Login here
© fantasyfootballfix 2024 | Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Contact Us
