If you are the sort of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) manager who enjoys going against the grain – or takes satisfaction from finding hidden gems before the crowd – then lowly selected players (differentials) can often provide value and offer a source of points which won’t be shared by many other managers. As long as the player picks are justifiable, differentials can give you an edge over your mini-league rivals.
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In this article we look ahead to Gameweek 20 and find players from each position who are currently selected by less than 10% of managers, but could reward their owners in the upcoming Gameweeks.
Despite only keeping 4 clean sheets all season, Aston Villa is actually ranked fifth-best in the league for xGC (25.03). On the back of a disappointing 3-2 defeat at Old Trafford – in which Unai Emery’s men will have felt they should have walked away with all 3 points – Villa will be looking to get back to winning ways as quickly as possible.
Manchester United (xG 1.18) 3-2 (xG 1.72) Aston Villa pic.twitter.com/nb9t4n609v
— Fantasy Football Fix (@FantasyFootyFix) December 27, 2023
Their Gameweek 20 fixture against Burnley will provide the perfect platform from which to do this, with their opposition sporting the 2nd worst attack in the league; according to Opta Stats Sandbox, they have accumulated an xG of just 19.21 all season, and have registered just 59 shots on target in their 19 games.
Villa will be eager to see the return of Pau Torres (£4.7m), who was an unused substitute against Manchester United, having recently returned from injury.
One of the great conundrums FPL managers will face in the coming Gameweeks is the ‘premium shuffle’. When Erling Haaland (£13.9m) returns from injury, managers will flock to bring him back. This will probably be done by sacrificing one (or both) of Mohamed Salah (£13.3m) or Son Heung-min (£9.9m) who will both be absent for their respective international cup competitions.
But what happens when all three premiums return? Managers who have aspirations of squeezing all three back into their squads will need a good enabler to free up much needed funds. Alejandro Garnacho (£4.7m) could be the solution.
Since Gameweek 11, Garnacho has played 65+ minutes without fail (playing the full 90 on four of those occasions). It is safe to say that, as things stand, he is a nailed member of the United squad, and with good reason too!
According to Opta Stats Sandbox, Garnacho has been arguably United’s best player in terms of underlying data. Since Gameweek 11, he is ranked top for Expected FPL Points (40.38), 2nd for xG (2.84), and top for shots (28).
Up next is a trip to Nottingham Forest, which could see Garnacho back on the scoresheet.
Chelsea’s only goal against Wolves came from a man they have clearly been missing. Having been out all season with a knee injury sustained in a pre-season friendly against Borussia Dortmund, Christopher Nkunku (£7.4m) finally made his return in Gameweek 19, bagging a 96th minute goal after being on the pitch for just 32 minutes.
Having been gently eased in – and rewarding his boss with a goal – Nkunku will be expected to play a more significant role in Chelsea’s next fixture, which just so happens to be against Luton Town.
With little stats to back up Nkunku as an FPL asset, this punt is all about getting ahead of the curve and relying on the French forward to maintain the momentum he created at Molyneux.
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